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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 33
2020-09-15 04:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 630 WTNT22 KNHC 150235 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 62.3W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 130SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 300SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 62.3W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.4N 59.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.8N 54.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.3N 48.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 44.6N 41.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.0N 37.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 45.8N 35.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 140SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 43.0N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 39.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 62.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-09-15 04:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 150235 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 90 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) 20N 120W 50 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 125W 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 25N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KODAMA
Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-15 04:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 740 WTPZ21 KNHC 150234 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.8W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 180SE 180SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 150SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.8W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 119.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.3N 122.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.4N 123.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.3N 124.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.8N 125.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.9N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.5N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 119.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA
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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-15 04:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150233 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Teddy is displaying some mixed signals this evening. On one hand, satellite imagery shows an improving cloud pattern, with increasing central convection and a large curved band on the southern side of the circulation. The latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates have increased to 55 kt on this basis. Scatterometer data, surprisingly, only shows 35-40 kt. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt as a blend of that data, assuming the typical undersampling from ASCAT, but there is a fair bit of uncertainty in the current wind speed. Teddy should have several days in a low or moderate shear environment over warm waters to intensify. All guidance responds to this forcing by showing Teddy near major hurricane strength in a few days, with the biggest disagreement being how fast it gets there. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, leaning toward the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance HCCA. Teddy is moving about the same as before, or 280/11 kt. No substantial changes were made to the forecast track with the storm in a seemingly stable steering current provided by a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic. Teddy should turn west-northwestward overnight and then northwestward on Wednesday through the end of the forecast while it moves on the southwestern flank of the ridge. Model guidance is in excellent agreement, with only some minor speed differences. The NHC track prediction is basically on top of the previous one and the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 13.2N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 13.8N 46.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 14.8N 48.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 15.9N 49.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 17.3N 51.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 18.5N 52.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 19.9N 54.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 22.6N 56.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 25.5N 60.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-15 04:33:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150233 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 200 AM CVT Tue Sep 15 2020 Vicky continues to be highly sheared due to strong upper- tropospheric flow associated with a nearby trough, and its associated deep convection is confined to a small cluster to the northeast of the center. An ASCAT overpass from a few hours ago showed an area of winds to just over 40 kt over the northern semicircle and, based on sampling limitations, the current intensity has been adjusted to 45 kt. The storm is not likely to maintain its intensity, since the dynamical guidance indicates that the shear over the cyclone will become even stronger during the next day or so. Therefore steady weakening is anticipated, and Vicky is likely to become a remnant low in about 36 hours. The official intensity forecast is near or slightly below the latest model consensus. Center fixes give a slow northwestward motion, or 315/6 kt. A narrow and weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Vicky should result in a northwestward to west-northwestward motion into early Wednesday. Thereafter, when the system will have probably have lost most of its deep convection, the shallow cyclone is likely to move mainly westward following the low-level environmental winds. The official track forecast is close to previous one and about in the middle of the guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.5N 29.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 20.5N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 21.4N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 22.3N 37.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 22.5N 39.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z 22.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z 22.5N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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