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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 11A

2020-09-14 13:56:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 141156 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 700 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...SALLY A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 87.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to Indian Pass Florida * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 87.4 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest tonight and a northward turn sometime on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern Louisiana this afternoon, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42039, located about 130 miles (215 km) south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida, recently reported peak sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...5-8 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft AL/FL Border to Navarre including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Navarre to Chassahowitzka including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area starting late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area during the next few hours, and are expected within the warning area beginning this morning. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow-moving system as it approaches land producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to move farther inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina Thursday into Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across this region. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion Number 11

2020-09-14 11:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 140954 CCA TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 11...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 Corrected 4th Key Message The organization of Sally hasn't changed much during the past several hours. While there was a large burst of convection earlier, it did not translate into any intensification, with flight-level reconnaissance and SFMR surface winds still supporting an initial wind speed of 50 kt. The Air Force Reserve plane did find that the size of tropical-storm-force wind field has notable grown to the north and northwest of the center. The storm still has time to intensify under a seemingly conducive environment during the next 24-36 hours, before a combination of increasing westerly wind shear and land interaction will probably slow the intensification rate. Model guidance has come down slightly from 6 hours ago, but it has been inconsistent from cycle to cycle. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the top end of the guidance envelope. The reconnaissance plane showed that Sally took a westward turn during the past several hours, but the storm appears to have a resumed a more west-northwestward motion recently. Weak ridging over the southern United States is expected to cause this general motion with a decrease in forward speed today before the storm slowly turns northward sometime on Tuesday due to an approaching trough. Guidance is not in good agreement on exactly when that turn occurs, causing a good deal of spread for a relatively short-range forecast. The track forecast has been shifted to the left in the short-term primarily due to the initial position, showing a track near or over extreme southeastern Louisiana, then is the near the previous one at its final landfall. The bottom line continues to be that Sally is expected to be a dangerous slow-moving hurricane near the coast of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama during the next 2-3 days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected by late today within portions of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely to begin by late this morning. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas. 4. Sally may continue to produce flash flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through today. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible and widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers is likely along and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the Southeast through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 28.3N 87.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 28.6N 88.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 29.1N 88.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 29.7N 89.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 30.6N 89.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/1800Z 31.6N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0600Z 32.5N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 33.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression Twenty-one Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-09-14 11:50:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 900 AM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140950 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Twenty-One Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 900 AM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 First-light visible satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure system that moved off the coast of Africa a few days ago has continued to become better organized overnight. Scatterometer surface wind data from around 13/2200 UTC indicated that the circulation had become better defined, and that surface winds of 25-28 kt existed in the southwestern quadrant. Since then, deep convection has increased, and it is presumed that the surface winds and circulation definition have increased in response, which justifies the initiation of advisories on TD-21. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 355/05 kt. The cyclone is forecast to gradually move northward today and northwestward tonight as the depression moves around the eastern end of the eastern Atlantic/west African monsoon trough. By Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday and Thursday, a west-northwestward to westward motion along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge is expected. The NHC track forecast lies down the middle of the surprisingly tightly packed guidance envelope, and is similar to the consensus model TVCA. The depression is expected to be short-lived as a tropical cyclone. Having said that, there is a narrow window of opportunity today and tonight for the cyclone to strengthen into a tropical storm before strong westerly shear in excess of 30 kt is forecast to induce rapid weakening on Tuesday. The cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night, and then dissipate over water on Friday, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1000Z 18.5N 28.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 19.6N 28.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 20.5N 29.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 21.3N 30.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 21.9N 32.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z 22.4N 34.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z 22.8N 36.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z 23.4N 41.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart/Beven

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Tropical Depression Twenty-one Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2020-09-14 11:48:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 140948 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 1000 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 1000Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Twenty-one Public Advisory Number 1

2020-09-14 11:47:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 900 AM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140947 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 900 AM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CVT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 28.3W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CVT (1000 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-One was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 28.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue into this afternoon, followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight, with a west-northwestward motion expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening could occur today and tonight, and the depression could briefly become a tropical storm during that time. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday night, if not sooner, and continue into Wednesday and Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Beven

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