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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 31
2020-09-14 16:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 141450 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON BERMUDA IN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 64.8W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 64.7W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 64.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.1N 63.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.5N 59.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.1N 54.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.9N 47.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.5N 41.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 47.1N 36.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 180SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 45.5N 33.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 40.1N 32.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 64.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-14 16:40:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 141440 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 200 PM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 A METOP A/B ASCAT scatterometer pass over the cyclone showed a large swath of winds in the northeast quadrant on the order of 35 to 39 kt. Deep convection in that region of the cyclone continues to increase as well as near the center of circulation. Accordingly, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt, making this the twentieth named storm of the season. This should be a short-lived tropical cyclone, however, as increasing southwesterly shear is expected to quickly weaken Vicky to a depression in a couple days, and the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low Thursday. This scenario is based on a combination of the global models and the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity models. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 325/05 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move northwestward with some increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours within the low to mid-level steering flow produced by the eastern end of the African monsoon trough. By Tuesday night, Vicky should turn west-northwestward to westward along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The official track forecast is close to the various consensus aids and is just to the north of the previous advisory beyond 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.7N 28.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 19.6N 29.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 20.6N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 21.6N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.2N 34.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 22.7N 36.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 23.0N 39.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z 23.1N 42.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-14 16:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141437 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020 There has been little change to the appearance of Karina over the past several hours, with a large area of deep convection remaining displaced mostly to the southwest of the center due to moderate northeasterly shear. Because the general appearance of the cyclone is unchanged, the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on earlier ASCAT data. The shear is expected to slowly relax over the next 24 h while the system remains over relatively warm waters, and some slight strengthening is possible during that time. After 24 h, Karina is forecast to cross the 26 degrees C SST isotherm and begin to enter a drier, more stable atmospheric environment. These factors should cause Karina to steadily weaken beginning by late Tuesday. By 72 h, the cyclone should be over water temperatures of less than 24C, and the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h, if not sooner. The low is then forecast to dissipate by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the various multi-model consensus aids. Karina has resumed a northwestward movement, and the initial motion is 305/7 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue while the deep convection persists, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Once the cyclone has weakened and lost most of its convection, it is expected to turn toward the west under the influence of the low-level flow. The track guidance has shifted northward at most time frames, and the latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right as well, but is still to the south of most of the track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.8N 119.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 20.0N 120.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 21.2N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.3N 123.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 23.7N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 23.7N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-09-14 16:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 141437 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 50(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 20N 120W 50 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 30A
2020-09-14 13:57:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 717 WTNT32 KNHC 141157 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 800 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...EYE OF PAULETTE MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AFFECTING THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 64.7W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring on Bermuda or will begin again in a couple of hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located over northeastern Bermuda or near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 64.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected soon and should continue into this afternoon. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected by this evening and should continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 95 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Hurricane-force winds are returning as the southern portion of Paulette's eyewall continues to move over the island. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue possibly into the early afternoon across the entire island. The estimated minimum central pressure based on hurricane hunter aircraft and surface observations on Bermuda is 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are returning to Bermuda from the south and southwest as the southern eyewall passes over the island soon. Hurricane conditions should subside around mid-morning, but tropical storm conditions will persist into late-morning and possibly early afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves into this afternoon. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. The final Tropical Cyclone Update will be issued at 900 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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