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Hurricane Sally Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-14 16:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 141451 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 An intense burst of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80 degrees Celsius has developed over and the to east of the center this morning. A recent fix from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the center has reformed to the east of the previous estimated location, beneath the burst of deep convection. NWS WSR-88D radar imagery shows an increase in banding around the eastern and southeastern portion of new center found by the aircraft and it appears that an eye is in its formative stage. The aircraft has reported believable SFMR winds of 55 kt, and that is the basis for the initial intensity. The most recent minimum pressure estimated from the aircraft data is 991 mb, down several millibars from the first fix on this flight. Sally is located within a conducive environment of low wind shear, warm waters, and a moist atmosphere. These conditions are likely to lead to steady strengthening over the next 24 hours or so. With the recent increase in organization of the inner core, there is more confidence that Sally will strengthen to a hurricane later today or tonight. Additional strengthening is possible on Tuesday while the storm moves slowly northwestward near the coast of southeast Louisiana. Increasing westerly wind shear and land interaction will probably slow the intensification rate by late tomorrow. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is near the upper-end of the guidance envelope. Since Sally is forecast to be moving very slowly around the time of landfall a slower rate of weakening is indicated since a large portion of the circulation will remain over water for some time. Given the recent re-formation of the center, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain west-northwestward at 5 kt. Weak ridging over the southeastern United State should steer Sally slowly west- northwestward through tonight. After that time, a northwestward to northward turn is anticipated but the exact timing and location of the turn remains uncertain. The general trend in the guidance has been eastward for the past few cycles, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models but a little west of the various consensus aids. Regardless of the exact forecast track and intensity of Sally, the slow-moving storm is expected to cause a life-threatening storm surge and freshwater flooding event. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are expected by late Tuesday within the Hurricane Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastline. Tropical storm conditions are likely to begin later today and this evening in these areas and preparations should be rushed to completion. 4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and just inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the Southeast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 28.4N 86.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 28.7N 88.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 29.2N 88.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 29.8N 89.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 30.8N 88.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 17/0000Z 31.8N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/1200Z 32.6N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1200Z 33.1N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2020-09-14 16:51:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 437 FONT13 KNHC 141451 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 30
2020-09-14 16:51:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 141451 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Deep convection continues to pulse over the eastern portion of Rene's circulation, enough to maintain the system's status as a tropical cyclone. However, recent visible statellite imagery suggest that the circulation may not be as well defined as it was yesterday. Satellite classifications support an initial wind speed of 25 kt. Strong west-northwesterly shear and dry air are expected to cause the depression to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low within the next 12-24 hours. The global models show the low-level circulation dissipating within 2 to 3 days and so does the official forecast. Rene has moved very little overnight but a west-southwestward or southwestward motion within the low-level steering flow should begin soon. That general motion is expected to continue until dissipation in a day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 27.5N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 27.0N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/1200Z 26.4N 50.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 25.5N 51.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 24.6N 53.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Rene Public Advisory Number 30
2020-09-14 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 141450 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...RENE CONTINUES TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 48.3W ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 48.3 West. The depression is stationary. A motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is forecast to begin later today and continue through dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low tonight, and dissipate by late Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 30
2020-09-14 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 141450 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 48.3W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 48.3W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 48.2W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.0N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.4N 50.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.5N 51.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 24.6N 53.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 48.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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