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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 30

2020-09-14 10:51:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 005 WTNT42 KNHC 140851 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 The large, 35-40-mile-wide eye of Paulette is located over northeastern Bermuda, and nearly the entire island is inside the eye. The last Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter mission measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 88 kt in the northeastern quadrant where data from satellites and the Bermuda radar (the radar is still functioning) indicate a large burst of deep convection has developed and persisted in that part of the eyewall, likely bringing down much of those winds to the surface. Using a standard 90-percent adjustment factor yields a surface wind estimate near 80 kt, and that is the intensity used for this advisory. The last reported pressure by the aircraft was 973 mb, which has been confirmed by surface observations from Bermuda. The initial motion estimate is 345/10 kt. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts remain essentially unchanged since all of the latest NHC guidance appears to be tightly dialed in on Paulette's future. Additional strengthening appears likely after Paulette moves away from Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic. Paulette is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, weakening is forecast as Paulette interacts with a mid-latitude trough and begins to lose its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is remains just above the intensity consensus, but is within the tightly clustered guidance envelope at all times. Confidence in the track forecast also remains high, and the latest track guidance is tightly packed about the previous advisory track. Paulette will move northward away from Bermuda today, followed by a turn toward the northeast by tonight and on Tuesday. A slower eastward to southeastward motion is expected by Friday when a large mid-tropospheric cut-off low over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to begin influencing Paulette's track. Key Messages: 1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermuda this morning, with hurricane conditions returning within a couple of hours. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this afternoon. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 32.3N 64.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 38.4N 57.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 40.9N 51.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 43.4N 45.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 45.3N 40.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 45.5N 36.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 41.6N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 30

2020-09-14 10:50:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 140850 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...ENTIRE ISLAND OF BERMUDA INSIDE HURRICANE PAULETTE'S EYE... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHORTLY DUE TO PAULETTE'S SOUTHERN EYEWALL... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 64.7W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring on Bermuda or will begin again in a couple of hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located over northeastern Bermuda or near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 64.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion should continue early this morning. A turn toward the north is expected by late morning and continue into this afternoon. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected by this evening and continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the eye of Paulette will continue to pass over Bermuda during the next couple of hours, followed by passage of the southern portion of the eyewall. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Although winds have subsided across much of Bermuda due to Paulette's eye passage, hurricane-force winds will return shortly when the southern portion of Paulette's eyewall passes over the island. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue possibly into the early afternoon across the entire island. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations on Bermuda is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Although most of Bermuda is currently inside Paulette's eye where much weaker winds exist, hurricane conditions will return to Bermuda from the south and southwest when the southern eyewall passes over the island in a couple of hours. Hurricane conditions should subside around mid-morning, but tropical storm conditions will persist into late-morning and possibly early afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves into this afternoon. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 30

2020-09-14 10:50:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 178 WTNT22 KNHC 140850 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON BERMUDA OR WILL BEGIN AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 64.7W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 64.7W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 64.4W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.4N 57.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.9N 51.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.4N 45.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.3N 40.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 180SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 45.5N 36.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 41.6N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 64.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29

2020-09-14 10:49:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 735 FONT13 KNHC 140849 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 29

2020-09-14 10:49:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 727 WTNT43 KNHC 140849 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Rene continues to produce just enough deep convection to keep it from degenerating to a remnant low. However, it is expected to degenerate later today due to the ongoing impact of strong west-northwesterly vertical shear and dry air entrainment. The initial intensity and the intensity forecast, which call for dissipation by 60 h, are unchanged from the previous advisory. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/3. The shallow cyclone should accelerate west-southwestward or southwestward in the low-level flow by 12-24 hours and continue on that general motion until dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 27.4N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 27.2N 49.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/0600Z 26.6N 49.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1800Z 25.8N 51.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 25.0N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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