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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-14 04:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 542 WTNT44 KNHC 140254 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Sally is gradually getting better organized. Satellite images show that deep convection has increased near the center, and the cyclone is now a little more symmetric and vertically aligned compared to earlier today. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Sally, and so far they have found maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt and maximum believable SFMR winds of 49 kt, which support the 50-kt initial intensity. Reports from the aircraft indicate that the center of Sally has jogged to the northeast, with the latest 12-hour motion estimated to be 305/7 kt. The global models show a trough exiting the northeast U.S. tomorrow and a ridge building to the north of Sally, which should cause the storm to resume a west-northwest motion at a relatively slow pace on Monday. By Monday night and Tuesday, the ridge is forecast to slide southeastward as another trough develops over the south-central U.S. This change in the pattern should cause Sally to slow down even more and gradually turn to the north and then the northeast. The new NHC tack forecast is slower and east of the previous one based on the initial position/motion and the latest models. However, the official forecast still lies west of the latest consensus aids, so further adjustments may be necessary overnight. While the current forecast shows landfall along the northern Gulf coast in 36 to 48 hours, the bottom line is that Sally is expected to be a slow- moving tropical cyclone near and over the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. The upper-level low that was producing northwesterly shear over Sally is moving away, resulting in a more favorable upper-level wind pattern for strengthening. These more conducive winds aloft combined with the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters and a moist air mass should allow the cyclone to steadily strengthening until Sally crosses the coast in 36 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast, and Sally is expected to become a tropical depression by 72 hours and dissipate in about 5 days. The eastward shift in the track forecast necessitates the extension of the hurricane warning eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Monday within portions of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely to begin Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas. 4. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across central and northern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through Monday. Widespread significant flash flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the middle of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the Southeast U.S. through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 28.2N 86.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 28.6N 87.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 29.0N 88.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 29.4N 89.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 30.3N 89.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/1200Z 31.2N 89.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0000Z 32.1N 88.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0000Z 33.6N 85.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-14 04:53:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 140253 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 86.2W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 86.2W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 85.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.6N 87.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.0N 88.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.4N 89.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.3N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.2N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.1N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 33.6N 85.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 86.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-09-14 04:49:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140249 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 The depression continues to march west-northwestward with little change in its structure so far. Scatterometer data near 00Z revealed that the system is still elongated southwest to northeast with maximum winds near 30 kt. Convection has become a little more concentrated to the southwest of the depression's center during the past few hours, so perhaps this is a sign that it will start getting organized soon. As long as the depression remains disorganized, only minimal strengthening is likely. However, once the system comes together, all indications are that it will strengthen, perhaps significantly so. The cyclone still has several days to strengthen within a low-shear/high-SST environment, and even the global models explicitly forecast the system to become a hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged and still brings the depression to major hurricane strength by the middle of the week. Some of the dynamical hurricane models indicate it could strengthen faster than that, so this forecast could wind up being conservative. The depression appears to be moving generally west-northwestward. A large mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic should keep the cyclone on this general heading for the next couple of days. After that, the ridge is forecast to move north and east, and the strengthening cyclone should turn toward the northwest in response. While the exact details vary from model to model, all of the dynamical track guidance supports this general scenario. The NHC forecast is based heavily on the model consensus and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 13.0N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 13.5N 41.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 13.9N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 15.0N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 48.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 17.2N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 20.0N 52.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Twenty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-09-14 04:49:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 140249 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Twenty Public Advisory Number 6
2020-09-14 04:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140248 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 39.0W ABOUT 1025 MI...1645 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 39.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion is expected for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest by mid-week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is anticipated and the system is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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