je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Depression Twenty-one Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-14 11:47:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140947 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 1000 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 28.3W AT 14/1000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 28.3W AT 14/1000Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 28.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.6N 28.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.5N 29.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 21.3N 30.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.9N 32.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.4N 34.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.8N 36.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 23.4N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 28.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Storm Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-09-14 11:17:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 140917 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Teddy Public Advisory Number 7
2020-09-14 11:17:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140917 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM TEDDY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 40.4W ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 40.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion is expected for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest by mid-week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-09-14 11:17:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140917 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 40.4W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 40.4W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 39.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.8N 42.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 44.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.0N 46.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N 48.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.9N 49.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N 50.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 53.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.9N 55.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 40.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-14 10:59:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140859 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 Earlier ASCAT data indciated peak winds of 33 kt in the northwestern quadrant of the depression. Since then, convection has increased and so have the various satellite intensity estimates. The initial intensity is increased to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data, and satellite estimates of T3.5/35 kt from TAFB and 38 kt from UW-CIMSS SATCON. This makes Tropical Storm Teddy the earliest 19th named storm, besting the unnamed tropical storm on October 4, 2005. The initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt. A deep-layer subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic should keep Teddy moving west-northwestward for the next couple of days. Thereafter, the ridge is expected to shift northward and eastward, and the strengthening cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward around the western periphery of the ridge. The latest NHC track guidance is general agreement on this developing track scenario, and the new official forecast track is similar to the previous one and lies down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the consensus model tracks. Teddy will have several days to strengthen over very warm ocean temperatures and within a light vertical wind shear regime. The only hindrance to intensification will be intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air that will briefly disrupt the inner-core convective structure. The NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged and brings Teddy major hurricane strength by the middle of the week. Some of the dynamical hurricane models continue to indicate that Teddy could strengthen faster than that, but I can't bear to make that forecast at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 13.4N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 13.8N 42.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 14.3N 44.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 15.0N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.9N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 16.9N 49.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 18.3N 50.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 21.0N 53.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 23.9N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
twenty
tropical
Sites : [909] [910] [911] [912] [913] [914] [915] [916] [917] [918] [919] [920] [921] [922] [923] [924] [925] [926] [927] [928] next »