je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-14 10:55:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 140855 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 The organization of Sally hasn't changed much during the past several hours. While there was a large burst of convection earlier, it did not translate into any intensification, with flight-level reconnaissance and SFMR surface winds still supporting an initial wind speed of 50 kt. The Air Force Reserve plane did find that the size of tropical-storm-force wind field has notable grown to the north and northwest of the center. The storm still has time to intensify under a seemingly conducive environment during the next 24-36 hours, before a combination of increasing westerly wind shear and land interaction will probably slow the intensification rate. Model guidance has come down slightly from 6 hours ago, but it has been inconsistent from cycle to cycle. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the top end of the guidance envelope. The reconnaissance plane showed that Sally took a westward turn during the past several hours, but the storm appears to have a resumed a more west-northwestward motion recently. Weak ridging over the southern United States is expected to cause this general motion with a decrease in forward speed today before the storm slowly turns northward sometime on Tuesday due to an approaching trough. Guidance is not in good agreement on exactly when that turn occurs, causing a good deal of spread for a relatively short-range forecast. The track forecast has been shifted to the left in the short-term primarily due to the initial position, showing a track near or over extreme southeastern Louisiana, then is the near the previous one at its final landfall. The bottom line continues to be that Sally is expected to be a dangerous slow-moving hurricane near the coast of southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama during the next 2-3 days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. It is too early to determine where Sally's center will move onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average forecast error at 48 hours is around 80 miles, and dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the center. 2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected by late today within portions of the Hurricane Warning area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely to begin by late this morning. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas. 4. Sally could continue to produce flash flooding across central and northern Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through today. Widespread significant flash flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama through the middle of the week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the Southeast U.S. through the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 28.3N 87.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 28.6N 88.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 29.1N 88.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 29.7N 89.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 30.6N 89.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/1800Z 31.6N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0600Z 32.5N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 33.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-09-14 10:53:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 140853 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) VENICE FL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) ST MARKS FL 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 13 9(22) 3(25) 5(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 290N 850W 34 16 8(24) 3(27) 3(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) PANAMA CITY FL 34 22 11(33) 5(38) 5(43) 1(44) 1(45) X(45) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 9 9(18) 9(27) 10(37) 3(40) 1(41) X(41) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 2(14) X(14) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 8(14) 4(18) 1(19) X(19) MONTGOMERY AL 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 10(20) 4(24) 2(26) X(26) WHITING FLD FL 34 9 14(23) 12(35) 12(47) 4(51) 1(52) X(52) WHITING FLD FL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 16 18(34) 11(45) 11(56) 3(59) X(59) X(59) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 46 3(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GFMX 290N 870W 64 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 13 32(45) 17(62) 12(74) 3(77) X(77) X(77) MOBILE AL 50 X 4( 4) 10(14) 14(28) 4(32) X(32) X(32) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 18 44(62) 16(78) 7(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) GULFPORT MS 50 X 13(13) 19(32) 12(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) GULFPORT MS 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) STENNIS MS 34 12 45(57) 20(77) 8(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) STENNIS MS 50 X 10(10) 21(31) 13(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) STENNIS MS 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) BURAS LA 34 38 44(82) 7(89) 2(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) BURAS LA 50 1 31(32) 16(48) 5(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) BURAS LA 64 X 4( 4) 7(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 890W 34 55 24(79) 4(83) 1(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 280N 890W 50 13 21(34) 6(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) JACKSON MS 34 1 6( 7) 7(14) 18(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 6 40(46) 20(66) 7(73) 2(75) 1(76) X(76) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 6( 6) 14(20) 9(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 7 16(23) 8(31) 4(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 12(14) 14(28) 11(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 13(16) 14(30) 9(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 5(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 6( 7) 7(14) 6(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 6( 8) 8(16) 7(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 6( 9) 3(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FORT POLK LA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) CAMERON LA 34 2 7( 9) 4(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA NAS 34 53 18(71) 5(76) 4(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) PENSACOLA NAS 50 2 6( 8) 6(14) 4(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KEESLER AB 34 47 31(78) 9(87) 4(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) KEESLER AB 50 1 22(23) 21(44) 10(54) 3(57) X(57) X(57) KEESLER AB 64 X 4( 4) 11(15) 7(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 11
2020-09-14 10:53:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 140853 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...OUTER RAIN BANDS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SALLY LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 87.3W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to Indian Pass Florida * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 87.3 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest tonight and a northward turn sometime on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, and approach southeastern Louisiana this afternoon, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...5-8 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft AL/FL Border to Navarre including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Navarre to Chassahowitzka including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area starting late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area during the next few hours, and are expected within the warning area beginning this morning. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow-moving system as it approaches land producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina Thursday into Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across this region. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally are affecting the west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of Alabama, and will be spreading northwestward along the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-09-14 10:52:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 140852 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 87.3W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 20SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 87.3W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 86.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 28.6N 88.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.1N 88.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.7N 89.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.6N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.6N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 32.5N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 33.5N 85.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 87.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2020-09-14 10:51:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 140851 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Sites : [910] [911] [912] [913] [914] [915] [916] [917] [918] [919] [920] [921] [922] [923] [924] [925] [926] [927] [928] [929] next »