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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 27
2020-09-13 22:42:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 132041 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Rene continues to produce occasional small bursts of deep convection, most recently to the north of its surface center. Both the TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications indicated that convection at 18Z was insufficient to classify the system, an indication that the few pop up thunderstorms are not sufficiently organized to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. That said, convection has increased a little since that time and there is a possibility that deep convection could increase further this evening. While Rene is still a tropical depression for the moment, if its convection does not persist, it could become a remnant low as soon as tonight. Only very small changes were made to the NHC track and intensity forecasts. Rene's forward speed has continued to slow down since this morning. The shallow cyclone should make a westward and then southwestward turn during the next day or two, steered by a building low-level ridge to the north. Regardless of its exact status, Rene will probably continue to produce only a few small disorganized bursts of convection for the next few days while its circulation gradually spins down. Surrounding dry air and large-scale subsidence will likely prevent the redevelopment of more signifcant shower or thunderstorm activity. Most of the dynamical guidance indicates that Rene will open into a trough of low pressure within about 72 h, if not sooner and the NHC forecast shows likewise. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 27.3N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 27.7N 48.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 27.4N 48.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/0600Z 26.9N 49.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 15/1800Z 26.3N 50.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z 25.7N 52.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Rene Public Advisory Number 27
2020-09-13 22:40:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 132040 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RENE STILL PRODUCING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND THERE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 47.6W ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 47.6 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). Rene is forecast to begin moving slowly westward and then southwestward during the next two or three days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated. Rene is forecast to become a remnant low on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2020-09-13 22:40:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 132040 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 27
2020-09-13 22:40:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 132040 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 47.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 47.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 47.5W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.7N 48.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.4N 48.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.9N 49.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.3N 50.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 25.7N 52.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 47.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 28
2020-09-13 22:39:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 132039 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Paulette has recovered from the dry air intrusion that was eroding the eastern eyewall this morning. A ring of deep convection with cloud tops ranging from about -50 to -65 C now completely surrounds a partially cleared eye. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the hurricane earlier this afternoon measured peak flight-level winds of 84 kt, which reduces to about 67 kt at the surface. However, since that time there has been steady improvement in the satellite presentation, and the latest Dvorak satellite T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are now at 4.5, supporting increasing the initial intensity to 75 kt for this advisory. Paulette is expected to remain in a low-shear environment over warm SSTs for the next 24-36 h, so gradual strengthening is likely during that time. Around 48 h from now, vertical wind shear is forecast to rapidly increase ahead of an approaching mid- upper level trough. This should cause the cyclone to begin weakening. By 72 h, Paulette is expected to be over waters less that 26 degrees C and should remain over cooler waters for the remainder of the forecast period. Around that same time, global models are indicating that the cyclone will begin to interact with a frontal boundary associated with the aforementioned trough. This should induce a gradual transition of Paulette to an extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be completed by 120 h, if not sooner. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one and shows Paulette continuing to strengthen as it passes near or over Bermuda early Monday. The forecast also shows Paulette becoming a major hurricane by Monday night, after the cyclone has moved away from Bermuda. This intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA. Paulette is moving northwestward at 11 kt, to the southwest of a mid-level ridge. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. This northwest motion should continue until just after the cyclone passes Bermuda Monday morning. Later on Monday, the hurricane should turn north, then northeastward, as it rounds the periphery of the ridge. After turning northeastward, the cyclone is expected to accelerate as it gets picked up in the mid-latitude flow ahead of the approaching trough. Later on in the forecast period a slower eastward motion is indicated once the trough bypasses the cyclone. The latest NHC forecast was nudged only slightly to the left of the previous one, and is in agreement with tightly clustered global and regional track guidance. Tropical storm conditions should reach Bermuda in the next couple of hours, with hurricane force winds arriving there overnight. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane today and will be near the island tonight and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning this evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 30.6N 63.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 38.1N 57.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 40.3N 52.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 42.4N 47.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 45.5N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 44.4N 34.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
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