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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2020-09-13 22:38:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 132038 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 92 7(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 47 41(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 28
2020-09-13 22:38:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 132038 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.1W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 313 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.1W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 62.6W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.1N 57.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.3N 52.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.4N 47.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 220SE 180SW 190NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 45.5N 38.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 44.4N 34.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 63.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 28
2020-09-13 22:38:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 664 WTNT32 KNHC 132038 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY NEED TO BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 63.1W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 313 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 63.1 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Monday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda late tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength within the next couple of hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-09-13 22:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 132036 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 A midday ASCAT pass revealed that Karina still has an elongated circulation and is likely still attached to the ITCZ/monsoon trough. The center is also displaced to the northeast of the deepest convection due to ongoing moderate northeasterly shear. The ASCAT data confirmed that the storm currently has maximum winds of 40 k, with most of the tropical-storm-force winds located over the southern semicircle. With the shear not expected to decrease from its current magnitude, only modest strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours or so while Karina remains over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius. The peak intensity shown in the official forecast has been adjusted downward to 50 kt, which is now the highest intensity shown by any of the intensity models. Colder waters and a drier, more stable atmosphere should induce gradual weakening after day 2, with Karina likely to lose all of its deep convection and become a remnant low by day 4. Karina turned a little bit to the left today but still has a west-northwestward heading (290/10 kt). A mid-level ridge located to the north should keep Karina on a west-northwestward trajectory with some reduction in forward speed through day 4. Once it weakens to a remnant low, Karina is expected to turn westward, steered by lower-level trade winds. There is some north-south divergence among the track models during Karina's expected remnant low stage, but the overall guidance envelope has not shifted. Therefore, the updated NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous one and lies close to the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.8N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 18.5N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 19.1N 118.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 19.8N 120.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 20.5N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 21.9N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z 22.5N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 4
2020-09-13 22:35:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 132035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...KARINA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 116.0W ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 116.0 West. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through late Monday or early Tuesday. Weakening is expected to begin later on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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