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Hurricane Paulette Graphics
2020-09-14 22:43:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 20:43:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 21:25:44 GMT
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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2020-09-14 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 142041 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Hurricane Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-14 22:40:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR BERMUDA... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 14 the center of Paulette was located near 34.5, -63.8 with movement NNE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 32
2020-09-14 22:40:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 142040 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...PAULETTE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.5N 63.8W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NNE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 63.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday afternonn through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely through Tuesday night as Paulette accelerates northeastward to east-northeastward. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusty winds on Bermuda should persist into the evening hours. STORM SURGE: Storm surge and associated coastal flooding and rough surf conditions on Bermuda should begin to subside this evening. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through this evening, with rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 32
2020-09-14 22:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 142039 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 63.8W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT.......170NE 170SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 63.8W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 64.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.1N 61.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.4N 57.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 160SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.8N 51.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.3N 44.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.4N 39.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 46.6N 35.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 180SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 44.3N 32.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 39.1N 31.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 63.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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