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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 28
2020-09-13 22:39:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 132039 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Paulette has recovered from the dry air intrusion that was eroding the eastern eyewall this morning. A ring of deep convection with cloud tops ranging from about -50 to -65 C now completely surrounds a partially cleared eye. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the hurricane earlier this afternoon measured peak flight-level winds of 84 kt, which reduces to about 67 kt at the surface. However, since that time there has been steady improvement in the satellite presentation, and the latest Dvorak satellite T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are now at 4.5, supporting increasing the initial intensity to 75 kt for this advisory. Paulette is expected to remain in a low-shear environment over warm SSTs for the next 24-36 h, so gradual strengthening is likely during that time. Around 48 h from now, vertical wind shear is forecast to rapidly increase ahead of an approaching mid- upper level trough. This should cause the cyclone to begin weakening. By 72 h, Paulette is expected to be over waters less that 26 degrees C and should remain over cooler waters for the remainder of the forecast period. Around that same time, global models are indicating that the cyclone will begin to interact with a frontal boundary associated with the aforementioned trough. This should induce a gradual transition of Paulette to an extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be completed by 120 h, if not sooner. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one and shows Paulette continuing to strengthen as it passes near or over Bermuda early Monday. The forecast also shows Paulette becoming a major hurricane by Monday night, after the cyclone has moved away from Bermuda. This intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA. Paulette is moving northwestward at 11 kt, to the southwest of a mid-level ridge. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. This northwest motion should continue until just after the cyclone passes Bermuda Monday morning. Later on Monday, the hurricane should turn north, then northeastward, as it rounds the periphery of the ridge. After turning northeastward, the cyclone is expected to accelerate as it gets picked up in the mid-latitude flow ahead of the approaching trough. Later on in the forecast period a slower eastward motion is indicated once the trough bypasses the cyclone. The latest NHC forecast was nudged only slightly to the left of the previous one, and is in agreement with tightly clustered global and regional track guidance. Tropical storm conditions should reach Bermuda in the next couple of hours, with hurricane force winds arriving there overnight. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane today and will be near the island tonight and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning this evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 30.6N 63.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 38.1N 57.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 40.3N 52.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 42.4N 47.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 45.5N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 44.4N 34.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2020-09-13 22:38:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 132038 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 92 7(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 47 41(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 28
2020-09-13 22:38:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 132038 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.1W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 313 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.1W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 62.6W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.1N 57.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 140SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.3N 52.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.4N 47.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 220SE 180SW 190NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 45.5N 38.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 44.4N 34.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 63.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Hurricane Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-13 22:38:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY NEED TO BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 13 the center of Paulette was located near 30.6, -63.1 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 28
2020-09-13 22:38:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 664 WTNT32 KNHC 132038 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY NEED TO BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 63.1W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 313 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 63.1 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Monday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda late tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength within the next couple of hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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