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Hurricane Paulette Graphics
2020-09-14 19:45:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 17:45:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 15:25:22 GMT
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 31A
2020-09-14 19:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 141742 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 200 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...PAULETTE STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND RAIN CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 64.4W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Hurricane Warning for Bermuda with a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 64.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue into the early evening hours. A turn toward the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday night through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (170 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely through Tuesday night as Paulette accelerates northeastward to east- northeastward. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions on Bermuda should persist into the mid to late afternoon hours. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves into this afternoon. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Paulette Graphics
2020-09-14 16:57:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 14:57:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 15:25:22 GMT
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 31
2020-09-14 16:55:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 141454 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 The 53rd Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft observed a peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 93 kt and a SFMR wind of 80 kt 25 miles to the northeast of the center of the 35 mile wide eye. The central pressure, also reported by the aircraft, has fallen to 970 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt for this advisory. Additional strengthening is expected as Paulette moves away from Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic. Paulette should be at or near major hurricane strength within the next 24 hours. At the 48 hour forecast period, weakening will commence as the cyclone becomes involved with a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching from the Canadian Maritimes. Paulette should begin losing its tropical characteristics toward the end of the week. The peak intensity is increased a little at the 24 hour period to agree with the HCCA and IVCN intensity multi-models and follows these aids through the remaining portion of the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 355/12 kt. Paulette will begin accelerating northeastward by Tuesday morning then turn east-northeastward with a further increased in forward motion early Wednesday morning. A slower eastward to southeastward motion is forecast on Friday in response to a larger mid- to upper tropospheric cut-off low approaching the eastern Atlantic. The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond the 36 hour period and basically lies down the middle of the tightly clustered deterministic and regional model guidance. Key Messages: 1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermuda today, however, hurricane and tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this afternoon. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 33.4N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 35.1N 63.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 37.5N 59.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 40.1N 54.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 42.9N 47.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 45.5N 41.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 47.1N 36.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 45.5N 33.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 40.1N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2020-09-14 16:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 141454 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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