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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 30A
2020-09-14 13:57:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 717 WTNT32 KNHC 141157 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 800 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...EYE OF PAULETTE MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AFFECTING THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 64.7W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring on Bermuda or will begin again in a couple of hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located over northeastern Bermuda or near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 64.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected soon and should continue into this afternoon. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected by this evening and should continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 95 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Hurricane-force winds are returning as the southern portion of Paulette's eyewall continues to move over the island. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue possibly into the early afternoon across the entire island. The estimated minimum central pressure based on hurricane hunter aircraft and surface observations on Bermuda is 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are returning to Bermuda from the south and southwest as the southern eyewall passes over the island soon. Hurricane conditions should subside around mid-morning, but tropical storm conditions will persist into late-morning and possibly early afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves into this afternoon. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. The final Tropical Cyclone Update will be issued at 900 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Hurricane Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-14 12:52:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EYE OF PAULETTE MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA... ...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS AFFECTING BERMUDA FROM THE SOUTHWEST... As of 7:00 AM AST Mon Sep 14 the center of Paulette was located near 32.6, -64.8 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Paulette Update Statement
2020-09-14 12:52:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT62 KNHC 141052 TCUAT2 Hurricane Paulette Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 700 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...EYE OF PAULETTE MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA... ...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS AFFECTING BERMUDA FROM THE SOUTHWEST... The eye of Paulette just barely north-northwest of the island of Bermuda. The southern portion of the eyewall with hurricane-force winds and torrential rains currently spreading over the island. All persons are urged to not venture outside until the storm passes this afternoon as winds will increase suddenly from the southwest. SUMMARY OF 700 AM AST...1100 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.6N 64.8W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Paulette Graphics
2020-09-14 11:03:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:03:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:03:52 GMT
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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2020-09-14 10:51:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 140851 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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