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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-18 16:35:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 181435 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the eastern Atlantic has become better-defined this morning. In addition, scatterometer data also show a closed circulation, albeit with some rain contamination causing some noise near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 35 kt, in accordance with scatterometer data from last night (this morning's data missed the eastern side of the storm). Thus Wilfred has formed, continuing the record-setting pace of the 2020 hurricane season since it is the earliest 21st named storm on record, about 3 weeks earlier than Vince of 2005. Further intensification is possible during the next day or two before a large upper-level trough is forecast to drop into the path of the storm and stay there for at least a few days. That should promote weakening due to a substantial increase in shear, and most of the global models show this tropical cyclone opening up into a trough by day 5. The official forecast follows this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the consensus and corrected-consensus aids. Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt. The storm is forecast to continue this motion for the next several days, owing to steering from the low- to middle-level subtropical ridge. The guidance is in fair agreement, and the official forecast is near or west of the consensus at all times, leaning in the direction of the HCCA corrected-consensus. I should mention that if Wilfred intensifies more than expected, it would probably move a bit right of the forecast track for a while due to the expected southwesterly flow at higher levels, before eventually turning back west-northwestward. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 11.9N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 12.6N 34.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 13.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 14.5N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 15.6N 42.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 16.7N 45.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 17.3N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 18.0N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Graphics
2020-09-18 16:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 14:33:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 15:41:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-09-18 16:33:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 181433 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Wilfred (AT3/AL232020)
2020-09-18 16:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WILFRED FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...GET OUT THE GREEK ALPHABET FOR THE REST OF 2020... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 18 the center of Wilfred was located near 11.9, -32.4 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-18 16:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 559 WTNT33 KNHC 181433 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 ...WILFRED FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...GET OUT THE GREEK ALPHABET FOR THE REST OF 2020... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 32.4W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 32.4 West. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this general motion is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today, and weakening should start this weekend and continue into next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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