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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 13
2020-09-17 10:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170833 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 ...VICKY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 36.7W ABOUT 925 MI...1485 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 36.7 West. Vicky is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn to the west is forecast later today, followed by a west-southwest motion on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Vicky is forecast to become a tropical depression later today and a remnant low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-09-17 10:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170833 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 36.7W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 36.7W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 36.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.6N 38.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 39.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.2N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 19.4N 43.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 36.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Vicky Graphics
2020-09-17 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2020 02:35:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2020 02:35:24 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-17 04:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170234 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 A layer of cirrus clouds are covering the center of Vicky, but those clouds are associated with outflow from Hurricane Teddy. A combination of outflow from Teddy and an upper-level low to the north of Vicky is causing very strong westerly winds across the top of the struggling tropical storm. As a result, Vicky is producing minimal convection that is displaced to the east of the center. Recent ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds are still near 35 kt, but Vicky's wind field is becoming smaller and the system is on the overall decline. There is no indication that the shear will decrease and Vicky should weaken as a result. The NHC forecast calls for Vicky to become a remnant low within 24 hours (if not sooner) and dissipate in a few days. Vicky is still heading generally westward. The tropical storm will likely continue westward through tomorrow morning, and then turn west-southwestward in the low-level tradewind flow after that for as long as it lasts. There is little spread in the track guidance and the NHC forecast is essentially the same as the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 21.6N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 21.6N 37.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 21.0N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 20.2N 40.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 19.4N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-09-17 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 170233 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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