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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-18 16:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 441 WTNT23 KNHC 181432 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 32.4W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 32.4W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 31.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.6N 34.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.5N 37.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.5N 40.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.6N 42.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.7N 45.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 47.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 18.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 32.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Vicky Graphics
2020-09-17 10:35:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2020 08:35:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2020 08:35:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-09-17 10:33:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170833 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 17 2020 Strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the outflow of Hurricane Teddy continues to rip across the circulation of Vicky. These very hostile winds aloft are causing Vicky to struggle with maintaining deep convection, which is quite sheared and limited to the northeastern quadrant. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 25 to 38 kt, and the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt. Since the shear is expected to remain strong, Vicky is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today, a remnant low by tonight, and dissipate entirely by the weekend. The weak storm is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. A turn to the west is expected later today, followed by a west-southwest motion after that until the cyclone dissipates in a couple of days. The track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 21.9N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 21.6N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 21.0N 39.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1800Z 20.2N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0600Z 19.4N 43.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-09-17 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 170833 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0900 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Vicky (AT1/AL212020)
2020-09-17 10:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICKY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 17 the center of Vicky was located near 21.9, -36.7 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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