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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 23A
2020-09-17 01:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 162351 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM SALLY CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 86.5W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF DOTHAN ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning from the Alabama/Florida border to the Walton/Bay County Florida line is discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line eastward to Indian Pass Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 86.5 West. Sally is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected tonight through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama tonight, over central Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland tonight, and Sally is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Sally has produced storm totals of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts of 30-35 inches, across the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, will continue across this region. Additional rainfall of 1 to 4 inches is possible across the Florida Panhandle from Tallahassee to the Apalachicola River. Rainfall totals expected as Sally tracks across the Southeast through Friday: Southern Alabama and central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 12 inches, resulting in significant flash flooding and widespread minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding. Central to upstate South Carolina: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches. Widespread flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding is possible. Western to central North Carolina and far southeast Virginia: 4 to 6 inches, isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Scattered flash flooding and widespread minor river flooding is possible. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Florida Panhandle coast but will continue to recede over the next several hours. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning area this evening. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur tonight across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia. The threat of tornadoes will shift northeastward into parts of eastern Georgia and much of the Carolinas on Thursday. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Vicky Graphics
2020-09-16 22:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 20:50:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Sep 2020 20:50:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-09-16 22:45:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 162044 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 There's been little change in Vicky's cloud pattern this afternoon. What's left of the deep convection associated with Vicky is displaced well to the east of the center. Cirrus clouds produced by the outflow of Hurricane Teddy, located nearly 1000 miles to the west-southwest of Vicky, are obscuring the sheared surface circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory in deference to the earlier scatterometer pass and due to the fact that the cloud pattern has remained unchanged. The UW-CIMSS SAT-Wind/shear products and water vapor imagery reveal an interesting upper wind pattern consisting of an upper low just to the west of Vicky and a narrow upper-tropospheric ridge to the south of the cyclone. These upper-level features are temporarily creating a very diffluent pattern which appears to be offsetting the blistering westerly shear a bit. In any event, Vicky is still forecast to gradually lose strength and degenerate to a remnant low on Friday, which is in best agreement with the global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity aids. The initial motion estimate is more westward, or 270/08. Vicky should continue moving westward for the next day or two before turning west-southwestward in the low-level tradewind flow. The new NHC track forecast is south of the previous one and is close to the HCCA and TCVA multi-model consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 21.5N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 21.6N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 21.3N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 20.6N 40.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 19.8N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-09-16 22:44:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 162044 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Summary for Tropical Storm Vicky (AT1/AL212020)
2020-09-16 22:44:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICKY HEADING WEST OVER THE OPEN EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 16 the center of Vicky was located near 21.5, -35.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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