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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-09-13 19:44:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 475 WTNT34 KNHC 131744 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...SALLY CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 85.5W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.48 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 85.5 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected through Monday. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north- northwest is forecast on Monday night, and slow north-northwestward motion is expected Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area late Monday and Monday night. Sally is expected to move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana or southern Mississippi on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with some additional strengthening possible before landfall Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) primarily to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 998 mb (29.48 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area starting late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area and expected within the warning area beginning Monday. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across southwestern Florida with isolated amounts of 6 inches along that coast through Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across west-central Florida. Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast through the middle of the week. Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana from Monday through the middle of the week. Sally is forecast to turn inland Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 4 to 8 inches possible farther inland across much of Mississippi and Alabama with further heavy rain anticipated for portions of Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers for Mississippi and Alabama. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible for portions of Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina. SURF: Swells from Sally are affecting the west coast of the Florida peninsula, the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and will be spreading northwestward along the northern Gulf coast through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Sally Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2020-09-13 17:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 15:52:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Graphics
2020-09-13 16:59:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 14:59:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 15:39:28 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-13 16:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 14:58:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-09-13 16:57:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 114 FONT14 KNHC 131457 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VENICE FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 3 3( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 3(16) 1(17) 1(18) GFMX 290N 850W 34 9 4(13) 3(16) 3(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 5( 8) 6(14) 4(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 6(19) 1(20) X(20) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 4(14) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 3(17) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 6(24) 1(25) 1(26) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 10(23) 6(29) 1(30) 1(31) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 27 53(80) 4(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 290N 870W 50 4 23(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MOBILE AL 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 19(40) 7(47) 1(48) X(48) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X 4( 4) 30(34) 23(57) 8(65) 1(66) X(66) GULFPORT MS 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) 29(64) 7(71) 1(72) X(72) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 5(35) 1(36) X(36) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) BURAS LA 34 X 13(13) 54(67) 13(80) 4(84) 1(85) X(85) BURAS LA 50 X 2( 2) 34(36) 17(53) 3(56) 1(57) X(57) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 46(48) 28(76) 4(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 22(22) 27(49) 4(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 4( 4) 18(22) 3(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 19(23) 14(37) 3(40) X(40) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 3( 3) 34(37) 30(67) 9(76) 1(77) X(77) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) 8(45) 2(47) X(47) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 4( 5) 27(32) 14(46) 7(53) 1(54) X(54) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 6(23) 1(24) X(24) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 35(48) 14(62) 3(65) X(65) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 8(29) 1(30) X(30) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 29(52) 13(65) 2(67) X(67) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 8(34) 1(35) X(35) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 14(33) 1(34) 1(35) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 27(34) 12(46) 3(49) X(49) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 27(36) 14(50) 2(52) X(52) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 1(19) X(19) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 9(20) 2(22) X(22) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 9(22) 2(24) X(24) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 10(26) 2(28) X(28) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 2 19(21) 17(38) 5(43) 5(48) X(48) 1(49) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEESLER AB 34 1 16(17) 38(55) 14(69) 4(73) X(73) X(73) KEESLER AB 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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