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Tropical Storm Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-09-12 10:44:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 120844 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-12 10:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE NO LONGER FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 12 the center of Rene was located near 22.5, -43.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 21
2020-09-12 10:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 120843 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...RENE NO LONGER FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 43.5W ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 43.5 West. Rene is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A slower northwest to north-northwest motion is expected on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the weekend, but some weakening is predicted to occur early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-09-12 10:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 120843 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 43.5W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 43.5W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 42.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.7N 44.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.4N 46.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.6N 47.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.2N 47.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.1N 48.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 25.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 24.7N 55.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 43.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-09-12 10:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120843 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 Conventional satellite imagery shows that the cyclone's cloud pattern has improved during the past several hours and that Paulette maybe on the cusp of becoming a hurricane very soon. An Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) overpass suggested that the cyclone has a much less vertical tilt and deep convective banding is developing in the south and east portions of Paulette. The subjective and objective satellite intensity T-numbers haven't changed from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis reveals some decrease in the shear magnitude and the upper wind pattern has become much more diffluent. The ECMWF/FV3 SHIPS and the large-scale models indicate that the shear will relax soon, and Paulette should become a hurricane today and further strengthen to a major hurricane early Tuesday. The SHIPS statistical-dynamical model indicates this scenario occuring earlier, Monday evening. The official intensity forecast is nudged slightly higher than the previous one and is close to the the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach intensity model. It is also important to note that the average NHC intensity errors are around 10-15 kt at 48-72 h, the range at which Paulette will likely be nearest to Bermuda. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/15 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge/Bermuda high north of the cyclone should continue to build across the western Atlantic and steer Paulette west-northwestward for the next 36 hours. Afterward, a turn toward the northwest to north-northwest with a significant increase in forward speed is expected early Monday and Monday evening in response to an approaching mid-latitude major shortwave trough. The track guidance suite remains tightly clustered with just some minor forward speed differences beyond day 3, so it's quite certain that Paulette will move near Bermuda early Monday, though it's a little too early to specify the exact closest approach. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory and once again is based on the various multi-model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming increasingly likely. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch have been issued for the island. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 26.8N 56.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 28.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 33.5N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 35.2N 63.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 38.2N 56.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 41.5N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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