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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-13 11:00:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.8W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 80SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 113.8W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 113.3W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.1N 114.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 60SE 80SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.8N 116.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.4N 118.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.9N 119.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.5N 120.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 22.0N 124.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 22.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 113.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Tropical Storm Sally Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-13 10:56:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 08:56:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-09-13 10:55:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 130854 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) APALACHICOLA 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) 4(17) 3(20) 1(21) 1(22) GFMX 290N 850W 34 10 14(24) 4(28) 2(30) 3(33) X(33) 1(34) GFMX 290N 850W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 9(10) 7(17) 4(21) 4(25) 2(27) X(27) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 7(20) 2(22) 1(23) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 4(18) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 8(13) 4(17) 3(20) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 10(25) 3(28) 1(29) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 8(19) 10(29) 2(31) 1(32) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 67(68) 14(82) 2(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 29(29) 13(42) 1(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 17(30) 14(44) 2(46) 1(47) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) 1(12) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 27(47) 13(60) 2(62) 1(63) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 9(22) 2(24) X(24) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 32(50) 15(65) 3(68) X(68) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 13(29) 2(31) 1(32) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) 1(11) BURAS LA 34 X 2( 2) 41(43) 27(70) 8(78) 1(79) X(79) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 12(12) 23(35) 7(42) 2(44) X(44) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 11(12) 49(61) 13(74) 3(77) 1(78) X(78) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 1( 1) 27(28) 13(41) 5(46) X(46) X(46) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 21(29) 7(36) 1(37) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 35(51) 16(67) 4(71) X(71) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 16(34) 2(36) X(36) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) 1(14) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 21(38) 10(48) 3(51) X(51) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 8(20) 1(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 21(47) 5(52) 1(53) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 2(19) X(19) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 27(36) 15(51) 5(56) X(56) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) 2(24) X(24) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 12(19) 4(23) 1(24) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) 18(33) 5(38) X(38) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 17(36) 4(40) 1(41) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) 1(14) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 7(18) 2(20) 1(21) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 2(16) 1(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 3(18) 1(19) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 8(19) 4(23) X(23) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 1 10(11) 24(35) 10(45) 6(51) 1(52) 1(53) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) KEESLER AB 34 1 4( 5) 35(40) 22(62) 9(71) 1(72) 1(73) KEESLER AB 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 7(28) 1(29) 1(30) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Sally (AT4/AL192020)
2020-09-13 10:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SALLY STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 the center of Sally was located near 27.0, -84.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 7
2020-09-13 10:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 130854 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...SALLY STRENGTHENING... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 84.0W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM W OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Port Fourchon Louisiana to Mississippi/Alabama Border. A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Grand Isle Louisiana northeast to Ocean Springs Mississippi, including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from east of Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from east of Ocean Springs Mississippi to Indian Pass Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 84.0 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected through Monday. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north- northwest is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico today, move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane watch area late Monday and Tuesday. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with some additional strengthening possible through early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area starting late Monday, with hurricane conditions possible within the hurricane watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday, and within the warning area late Monday. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches across southern and central Florida through Monday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across Central Florida. Tropical Storm Sally is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches over portions of the Central Gulf Coast between the western Florida Panhandle and far southeast Louisiana from Monday into the middle of the week. Rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is possible farther inland over portions of Mississippi and Alabama. Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in significant flash flooding near the Central Gulf Coast through the middle of the week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams, and minor to isolated major flooding on rivers is likely. SURF: Swells will spread northward along the west-central coast of Florida and reach the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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