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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-09-12 16:56:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 121456 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 Paulette's structure is going through a bit of an evolution as the deep-layer shear backs from southwesterly to southeasterly. Most of the deep convection had waned earlier this morning, but new convection is beginning to develop near the center as the cyclone reconstitutes itself. For now, the initial intensity remains 60 kt. An overnight AMSR microwave pass showed that Paulette has well-defined low-level banding features, and this structure should allow the cyclone to strengthen as vertical shear falls below 10 kt during the next 12-24 hours. Strengthening is anticipated to continue through day 3, and after that time, gradual weakening is possible due to increasing southwesterly shear. The intensity guidance has been fairly stable for the past few forecast cycles, and no significant changes were required to this new NHC intensity forecast, which lies close to the HCCA model and just a bit above the intensity consensus. Paulette is likely to be strengthening while it makes its closest approach to Bermuda in about 48 hours, and the GFS-based SHIPS and HWRF models each suggest that there is a possibility of it becoming a major hurricane in 72 hours. Paulette is moving northwestward (310/13 kt), with a break in the subtropical ridge located due north of the storm. The ridge may strengthen briefly over the next day or so, causing Paulette to move west-northwestward for a short time, but it should resume the northwestward motion by late Sunday. After that time, an approaching longwave trough over the northeastern United States will erode the ridge eastward, causing Paulette to recurve sharply toward the north and then northeast between days 2 and 3. The hurricane is then expected to accelerate east-northeastward toward the north Atlantic on days 4 and 5, embedded within the mid-latitude flow. The track guidance is well clustered and has not shown any significant shifts over the past few forecast cycles. Therefore, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning late Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning has been issued for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda, and are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 27.5N 57.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 28.5N 59.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 29.5N 61.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 30.8N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 32.4N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 34.2N 64.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 35.8N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 39.0N 54.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2020-09-12 16:56:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 121456 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 8( 8) 51(59) 32(91) 5(96) X(96) X(96) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 18(18) 48(66) 14(80) X(80) X(80) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 13(53) X(53) X(53) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 23
2020-09-12 16:56:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 121456 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... ...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 57.2W ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 57.2 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwest or west-northwest motion is expected through late Sunday. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late Sunday evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 23
2020-09-12 16:56:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 121456 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 57.2W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 80SE 60SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 270SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 57.2W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 59.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 80SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.5N 61.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.8N 63.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.4N 64.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.2N 64.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.8N 61.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 39.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 57.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-12 13:54:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 11:54:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 09:25:27 GMT
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