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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-11 22:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 20:52:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Sep 2020 20:52:11 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-09-11 22:52:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 062 WTNT43 KNHC 112051 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Deep convection has increased over the western semicircle of the circulation and is re-forming near the center. Based on a blend of subjective Dvorak classifications and ADT values from UW-CIMSS, the current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt. Hopefully we will get a scatterometer pass over the system soon to give a better intensity estimate. Some strengthening is anticipated during the next day or so, but increasing shear should halt the intensification process, and bring about weakening, thereafter. The official intensity forecast is above the latest model consensus. Rene continues to move west-northwestward and should gradually turn to the right while it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system for the next couple of days. In the latter half of the forecast period, a blocking high to the north and northwest of Rene should force the cyclone to turn toward the west and west-southwest. The new official track forecast has been shifted to the southwest of the previous one in 3-5 days, following the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 20.7N 41.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 21.7N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 23.3N 44.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 24.9N 46.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 26.4N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 27.0N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 26.5N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 25.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-11 22:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 11 the center of Rene was located near 20.7, -41.1 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 19
2020-09-11 22:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 112051 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 ...RENE SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 41.1W ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 41.1 West. Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northwest followed by a turn toward the north-northwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, but a weakening trend will likely begin by late Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-09-11 22:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 112051 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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