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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-12 13:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT... As of 8:00 AM AST Sat Sep 12 the center of Paulette was located near 27.2, -56.8 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 22A
2020-09-12 13:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 121154 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 800 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...PAULETTE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 56.8W ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 56.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through the weekend, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Monday and Monday evening. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is anticipated, and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin to affect Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions could begin in that area Sunday night or early Monday. RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Rene Graphics
2020-09-12 10:52:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 08:52:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 08:52:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-12 10:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 08:48:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 08:48:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-09-12 10:44:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 120844 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 Deep convection associated with Rene appears to have lost some organization overnight. Although there have been several pulsating bursts of convection overnight, the convection that was persistent over the center during the evening is now confined to the southern portion of the circulation. A blend of the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 35 kt, but this could be generous. ASCAT data later this morning should help to determine if Rene is still a topical storm. Mid-level dry air appears to be the primary reason why Rene has struggled to strengthen over the past few days, and although the shear is expected to remain low today, the dry air is likely to prevent strengthening. On Sunday, Rene is forecast to approach an area of strong west-northwesterly flow aloft, and this increase is shear is likely to cause the cyclone to weaken. Most of the global models continue to significantly weaken Rene early next week, and both the ECMWF and GFS suggest that the cyclone will degenerate into a trough of low pressure by days 4 or 5. The NHC forecast continues to maintain Rene as a tropical cyclone throughout the forecast period, but if the current trends it is becoming unlikely that Rene will survive as a tropical cyclone for the entire 5-day period. Rene has turned northwestward and is now moving at 305/13 kt. A northwestward motion around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic should continue for another 12 to 24 hours, but by late Sunday Rene is forecast to slow down as ridge of high pressure builds to the northwest and north of the cyclone. Later in the period, Rene is forecast to turn westward and then southwestward under the influence of the building ridge. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and no significant changes to the official forecaster were required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 22.5N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 23.7N 44.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 25.4N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 26.6N 47.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 27.2N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 27.1N 48.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 26.7N 49.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 25.5N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 24.7N 55.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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