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Tropical Storm Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-09-12 22:48:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 122048 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MARATHON FL 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NAPLES FL 34 13 X(13) 1(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) FT MYERS FL 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) VENICE FL 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 2(10) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 3(14) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 2(13) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 7(22) 4(26) 3(29) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 4( 4) 14(18) 6(24) 6(30) 3(33) 2(35) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 8(26) 6(32) 2(34) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 9(28) 4(32) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 5(16) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 7(22) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 6(27) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 11(20) 12(32) 5(37) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 14(26) 11(37) 4(41) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 2( 2) 45(47) 20(67) 6(73) 2(75) 1(76) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 14(14) 17(31) 6(37) 1(38) 1(39) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) 1(16) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 22(33) 14(47) 4(51) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 3(18) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 30(44) 12(56) 4(60) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 8(23) 2(25) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 32(44) 13(57) 4(61) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 9(25) 2(27) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 32(55) 8(63) 3(66) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 7(30) 2(32) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 36(52) 19(71) 3(74) 1(75) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 15(36) 5(41) 1(42) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 3(18) X(18) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 22(33) 5(38) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 32(42) 13(55) 4(59) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 9(25) 2(27) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 23(36) 10(46) 2(48) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) 1(18) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 14(40) 3(43) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 24(29) 13(42) 3(45) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 1(17) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 14(22) 3(25) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 14(30) 3(33) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 13(32) 3(35) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) 2(19) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 3(19) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 10(17) 2(19) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 8(19) 2(21) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 1(12) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 1(12) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 22(32) 15(47) 9(56) 2(58) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 3(17) 2(19) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 25(31) 26(57) 9(66) 4(70) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 8(30) 3(33) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 2(14) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-12 22:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 20:48:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Sep 2020 21:25:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-12 22:47:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 122047 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE...AND MOBILE BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 81.9W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 81.9W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 81.5W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 26.4N 83.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.3N 85.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.0N 86.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 28.5N 88.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.0N 89.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.7N 89.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.1N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 33.1N 87.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 81.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2020-09-12 22:46:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 122046 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 2 31(33) 58(91) 5(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) BERMUDA 50 X 2( 2) 60(62) 19(81) 3(84) X(84) X(84) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 35(35) 23(58) 4(62) X(62) X(62) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-09-12 22:46:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 122046 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 Convective cloud tops have cooled again as deep convection has redeveloped since this morning, with an eye-like feature noted in visible satellite imagery. Since the storm is still being affected by 20-25 kt of southerly shear, it is assumed that the low-level center is still displaced to the south of this feature a bit. But it won't be surprising if the low- and mid-level centers become collocated soon as the shear drops significantly during the next 6-12 hours. The initial intensity remains 60 kt, and we should get a much better handle on Paulette's maximum winds and structure once the first Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reaches the storm this evening. The motion remains northwestward (305/13 kt) due to a break in the subtropical ridge to the north-northeast of Paulette. A mid-tropospheric high currently centered near the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast is expected to slide eastward to the north of Paulette during the next 24 hours, which should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward tonight. Once the high becomes established over the central Atlantic, Paulette is expected to recurve around its western periphery toward a longwave trough over the northeastern United States Sunday night through Monday night. On days 3 through 5 of the forecast period, Paulette should be accelerating northeastward toward the north Atlantic, embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is embedded among the very tightly clustered guidance envelope, and no significant changes were made from the morning forecast. As stated above, deep-layer shear is expected to be 10 kt or less between 12 and 48 hours. While ocean waters are plenty warm at 28-29 degrees Celsius, the main possible limiting factor for strengthening would be mid-level dry air, with the SHIPS model diagnosing ambient relative humidities of 30-40 percent for the next couple of days. But, if the shear remains low enough, that dry air is unlikely to infiltrate the circulation, and Paulette is therefore expected to intensify during the next 2-3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS, HCCA, and HWRF solutions, showing a peak intensity just under the major hurricane threshold in 2-3 days, when Paulette should be starting to move away from Bermuda. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday and be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda, and are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United States during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 28.4N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 33.5N 64.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 35.3N 63.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 37.0N 59.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 40.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 43.5N 44.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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