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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-09-11 10:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 110841 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 38.5W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 38.5W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 38.0W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.4N 40.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.6N 42.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 44.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 25.0N 45.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.6N 46.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.4N 46.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 26.9N 46.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 26.1N 48.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 38.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-09-11 10:40:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110840 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 Paulette continues to experience the effects of 35-40 kt of southwesterly vertical shear, which has caused the center to occasionally become exposed to the south and southwest of the primary convective bursts. Since the various satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the last scatterometer overpass, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. However, this could be a little generous. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/9 kt. There is little change to either the forecast track philosophy or the forecast track from the last advisory. The track guidance models remain in good agreement between a generally northwest to west-northwestward motion over the next 3-4 days as the cyclone is steered by the subtropical ridge to its north and northeast. Around day 4, the cyclone is expected to recurve into the westerlies through a break in the ridge, with this turn to the northeast expected at about the time of closest approach to Bermuda. The new forecast track lies close to the various consensus models. It should be noted that there is still sufficient spread in the track guidance such that it is too soon to know what types of impacts Paulette could have on Bermuda early next week. The global models are in reasonable agreement that the shear over Paulette should subside, although it may be another 24 h before it subsides enough that significant strengthening can occur. After that, conditions should be favorable for strengthening until the system again encounters strong upper-level winds near 120 h after recurvature. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that Paulette will strengthen to a hurricane during this time and reach a peak intensity in about 96 h, and the new intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous forecast. The new forecast is close to, but a little weaker than the various intensity consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday and Tuesday. While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 23.1N 51.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 23.9N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 25.3N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 26.8N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 28.2N 58.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/1800Z 29.5N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 30.7N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 33.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 36.0N 59.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-11 10:39:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND... ...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 11 the center of Paulette was located near 23.1, -51.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 18
2020-09-11 10:39:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 641 WTNT32 KNHC 110839 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020 ...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND... ...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 51.7W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette. Please consult products from your local weather office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 51.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette should approach Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Gradual strengthening is expected to begin tonight or on Saturday, and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands today and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-09-11 10:39:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 110839 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 31(77) 6(83) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 29(47) 6(53) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) 4(30) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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