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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-09-10 16:37:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 101437 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 35.8W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 35.8W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 35.4W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.0N 37.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.6N 39.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.4N 41.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.7N 43.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.1N 45.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.7N 47.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 27.6N 49.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 29.2N 50.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 35.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-09-10 16:37:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 101437 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 49.1W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 210SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 49.1W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 48.7W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.8N 50.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.6N 52.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.8N 54.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 50SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.4N 56.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.9N 58.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 65.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 49.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Rene Graphics
2020-09-10 10:40:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2020 08:40:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2020 08:40:06 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-10 10:39:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2020 08:39:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2020 08:39:28 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-09-10 10:38:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100838 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 Several recent microwave overpasses indicate that Rene continues to be affected by easterly shear, with the low-level center located near the eastern edge of the ongoing bursting convection. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 35-45 kt range and have changed little since the last advisory. Based on that, the initial intensity remains 35 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. There is no change in the overall track forecast philosophy. Rene should move generally west-northwestward for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the northwest into a weakness in the subtropical ridge partly caused by Tropical Storm Paulette. Late in the forecast period, the track forecast becomes more problematic due to uncertainties in how much ridging will build north of Rene and how close it will be to the larger Paulette. The track guidance during this time shows increasing spread and some westward shift from the previous advisory. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 h, then it lies to the left of the previous track at 96 and 120 h. However, at these times, it lies to the right of the various consensus models. The shear should gradually diminish during the next 48-60 h, and this should allow Rene to strengthen to or near hurricane strength. After that time, strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to cause gradual weakening despite the cyclone moving over increasing sea surface temperatures. The new official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. It lies near the various intensity consensus models through 72 h, but is weaker than those models at 96 and 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.2N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 18.6N 36.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 19.1N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 19.8N 40.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 21.0N 42.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 22.4N 44.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 24.1N 45.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 28.6N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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