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Tropical Storm Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-09-10 10:38:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 100838 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-10 10:38:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 10 the center of Rene was located near 18.2, -34.8 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 13
2020-09-10 10:38:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100838 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 ...RENE CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 34.8W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 34.8 West. Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for a couple of days, followed by a turn toward the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rene is expected to be near hurricane strength by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 13
2020-09-10 10:38:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 100838 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 34.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 34.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 34.3W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.6N 36.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.1N 38.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.8N 40.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 42.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.4N 44.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.1N 45.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 27.0N 47.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 28.6N 49.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 34.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-09-10 10:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 100837 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 Although Paulette's center of circulation has separated farther south from the cloud mass during the past several hours, the cyclone is still producing an area of deep convection consisting of -79C cold cloud tops. Earlier scatterometer data indicated surface winds of 45-50 kt in this region of coldest cloud tops, so it's reasonable to think that those winds are still present. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory. Both the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity models show the shear magnitude increasing to 35-40 kt today. As a result, Paulette is expected to begin weakening by this evening. Over the weekend, however, the shear is forecast to decrease gradually and shift from the southeast and become a bit more diffluent, which should allow for reintensification. Several of the skilled intensity guidance, including the aforementioned SHIPS, and the consensus models, HCCA and IVCN, now show Paulette as a hurricane in 4 days, or sooner (COAMPS-TC). The official intensity forecast is once again adjusted upward, and lies between the HCCA (a little higher) and the Decay SHIPS intensity guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt and Paulette should continue in this general motion through Friday as a mid-tropospheric ridge temporarily builds over the central Atlantic in response to a mid- to upper-level trough, extending southwestward from the Azores Islands, weakening and lifting northeastward. By Saturday morning, a break in the aforementioned ridge develops due to a combination of mid- to upper-level low situated to the northwest of the cyclone and a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving off of the northeast U.S. This change in the synoptic steering pattern should cause the tropical cyclone to turn toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory, but a little faster beyond 48 hours, and is shifted to the left, closer to the HCCA and TVCN consensus models at days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 20.9N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 21.3N 50.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 21.8N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 22.8N 54.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 24.1N 55.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 25.7N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 27.1N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 29.7N 63.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 32.0N 64.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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