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Tropical Storm Rene Graphics
2020-09-10 22:32:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2020 20:32:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2020 20:32:29 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-09-10 22:31:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 102031 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 It appeared that the storm had become better organized this morning, but that development trend seems to have been at least temporarily interrupted. Rene's central features have become rather ragged-looking, and deep convection has diminished somewhat. It appears that the system is being disrupted a bit by easterly flow that is undercutting the outflow layer. There is also an apparent dearth of low-level inflow over the southern and southeastern portions of the circulation at this time. Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain T3.0/45 kt, so the current intensity estimate is unchanged from the previous advisory. Assuming that the upper-level winds will soon become a little more conducive for strengthening, Rene is forecast to become a hurricane by the weekend. The official intensity forecast is a little below the latest model consensus. Rene continues its west-northwestward movement with a motion of near 285/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward for the next few days, while moving around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone. Later in the forecast period, A mid-level high is predicted to build to the northwest of Rene, which should slow down the cyclone's forward progress and cause it to turn to the left. At the present time, it appears that Rene will remain sufficiently separated from Paulette, which is located about 800 n mi to the west, for there not to be a significant binary interaction between the two storms. The official track forecast remains close to the simple dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 18.9N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 19.4N 38.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 20.2N 40.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 21.3N 42.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 22.7N 44.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 24.3N 45.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 25.8N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 27.3N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 27.5N 49.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-10 22:31:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 10 the center of Rene was located near 18.9, -36.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 15
2020-09-10 22:31:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 102031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020 ...RENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 36.8W ABOUT 865 MI...1395 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 36.8 West. Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rene is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-09-10 22:31:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 102031 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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