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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 9
2020-09-09 04:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090250 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020 ...PAULETTE IS A LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 45.0W ABOUT 1400 MI...2250 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 45.0 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly faster motion toward the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday, a westward motion is forecast on Thursday, followed by a turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest by late Friday. Satellite-derived data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tomorrow, with slow weakening anticipated on Thursday and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-09-09 04:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 090250 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-09-09 04:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 090250 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.0W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 60SE 30SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.0W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 44.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.8N 46.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.2N 48.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.6N 50.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.8N 51.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.1N 52.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.9N 53.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.4N 55.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 45.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Rene Graphics
2020-09-08 22:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2020 20:35:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Sep 2020 21:32:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-08 22:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 082034 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 800 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020 Rene has not changed much throughout the day. The storm is producing deep convection that is loosely organized in bands around the center. The satellite intensity estimates are unchanged from earlier and range from 25 kt to 40 kt. Based on these data and the earlier ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is again held at 35 kt. The eastern-most bands of Rene are now pulling west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and the Tropical Storm Warning for those islands has been discontinued. Although Rene has struggled to maintain its intensity during the past 24 hours, the models insist that the cyclone will begin to take advantage of the generally conducive conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and relatively warm waters. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast continues to show Rene strengthening to a hurricane in a couple of days. Beyond that time, however, Rene will likely be moving into an environment of strong westerly wind shear, which should cause the storm to weaken in the 3-5 day time period. This forecast is largely an update of the previous one and closely follows the IVCN model. The tropical storm continues to move westward at 14 kt. There has been no significant change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge should continue to steer Rene westward to west-northwestward for the next couple of days. After that time, the storm should slow down and gradually turn to the north and then to the northeast as it moves into a weakness in the ridge. There is a little less spread in the guidance this cycle, but there remain differences in the models concerning where and how sharply Rene recurves. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies close to the TVCA and TVCX consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 16.8N 27.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 17.2N 29.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 18.0N 32.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 18.9N 34.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 19.9N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 21.3N 38.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 23.2N 40.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 27.7N 42.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 30.5N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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