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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-09-09 22:29:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 092029 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 47.4W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 34 KT.......210NE 90SE 60SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 47.4W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.9N 48.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 60SE 30SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.4N 50.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 40SE 0SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.6N 52.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 30SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.3N 54.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 30SE 0SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.3N 55.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 50SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 24.8N 56.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 28.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 30.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 47.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-09 10:49:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SHEARED PAULETTE JOGS TO THE WEST... ...EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 9 the center of Paulette was located near 19.2, -45.6 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 10
2020-09-09 10:49:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090849 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 ...SHEARED PAULETTE JOGS TO THE WEST... ...EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 45.6W ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 45.6 West. Paulette is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slightly faster motion toward the west-northwest is expected later today, followed by a temporary westward motion on Thursday. A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, with gradual weakening anticipated on Thursday and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-09 10:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2020 08:43:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Sep 2020 08:43:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-09 10:42:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090842 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 The 20-30 kt of southwesterly shear continues to have a significant impact on Paulette's inner core. A 0615 UTC Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager overpass showed a severely sheared tropical cyclone with the exposed surface circulation displaced to the south of the cloud canopy. Although the objective ADT and an earlier SATCON analysis yield 45 kt, The initial intensity is held at a generous 50 kt for this advisory in deference to last night's scatterometer pass showing a few 50 kt winds. In addition to the moderate, persistent shear, the RAMMB/CIRA Average Vertical Instability parameter time series analysis revealed a higher than normal (1995-2010) statically stable environment, another potential inhibiting factor. This was further supported by the statistical-dynamical intensity models showing a rather parched mid-troposphere (less than 58%). Therefore, slow weakening of Paulette is forecast during the next few days. Toward the end of the period, the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity models continue to indicate a more southerly, diffluent pattern which should aid in some restrengthening, and this is indicated in the NHC forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/7 kt. Paulette should turn west-northwestward later today and westward on Thursday around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast of the cyclone. A turn northwestward is predicted on Saturday as Paulette moves further into a growing weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic. The official forecast is an update of the previous one through 72 hrs, then is shifted to the left through day 5 to lies between the HCCA consensus and the the HFIP/NUOPC Project's 5EMN 133 member multi-model ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 19.2N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 19.7N 46.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.8N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 22.7N 54.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 25.9N 58.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 28.7N 61.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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