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Tropical Storm Paulette Graphics
2020-09-10 04:35:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2020 02:35:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Sep 2020 02:35:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-09-10 04:34:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100234 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Rene remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with modest mid-/upper-level easterly vertical wind shear of 12-15 kt undercutting the otherwise favorable outflow layer. The combination of the shear and intrusions of dry mid-level air have caused the convective pattern to continue to fluctuate since the previous advisory. Although a recent burst of deep convection has again pulsed near and to he west of the center, the intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on a 09/2305Z ASCAT-A overpass indicating barely 34 kt winds in the northwest quadrant. The 34-kt wind radius was also expanded in that quadrant based on the ASCAT wind data. The initial motion remains west-northwestward motion or 285/11 kt. Under the influence of a mid-level ridge, Rene is expected to continue moving west-northward over the eastern Atlantic for the next few days. A weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop around 40W-45W longitude, which will be partly induced by Tropical Storm Paulette's circulation, causing Rene to slow down and turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest on 3-4 days. By day 5, Rene's northward motion is forecast to be blocked significantly by a building ridge to the north of the cyclone as TS Paulette moves farther away. It is possible that Rene could stall or even make a small looping motion if the storm gets trapped within the much larger ridge. The new NHC forecast is to the left or south of the previous advisory track, but not as far left as the consensus models or the preponderance of the remaining guidance. Rene's upper-level outflow is forecast to remain intact for the next 60 h or so, which would should allow for at least gradual strengthening during that time. The shear is forecast by both the GFS and the ECMWF models to decrease to near zero in the 36-48 h time frame, and that is when Rene should be able to take advantage of marginal sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 26.5C and modest mid-level humidity conditions, and obtain hurricane status in 48-60 h. Thereafter, strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to induce gradual weakening despite the cyclone moving over warmer SSTs of 27-28C. The official intensity forecast is similar to the GFS model intensity forecast, and lies below the simple consensus model IVCN and the corrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 18.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 18.4N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 18.9N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 19.4N 39.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 20.5N 41.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 21.8N 43.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 23.5N 45.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 26.8N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 28.3N 47.6W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-09-10 04:34:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 100233 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-10 04:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 9 the center of Rene was located near 18.0, -34.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-09-10 04:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 191 WTNT42 KNHC 100233 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 Paulette remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center southwest of a large area of deep convection. Recent scatterometer data showed peak winds of 45-50 kt, so 50 kt is used as the initial wind speed, which happens to be quite similar to a blend of the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates. Paulette should begin to weaken tomorrow and continue on a downward trend for 2-3 days as strong shear impacts the cyclone. No change has been made to the forecast through Saturday. Thereafter, the storm is likely to move into a lower-shear environment on the northeastern side of a mid/upper-level low, with SSTs rising to about 29C. There is better agreement among the models tonight that Paulette will survive the shear and be able to take advantage of that favorable environment. In fact, almost all of the most reliable guidance, save LGEM/SHIPS, show the storm becoming a hurricane by 120 hours, and the global models are trending in that direction. The new NHC forecast is raised from the previous one, near the model consensus, but isn't quite as high as the regional hurricane models. The storm is moving at about the same motion as before (295/9 kt). Paulette should turn westward tomorrow as it weakens and encounters stronger low/mid-level ridging. A weakness in the ridge develops by the weekend due to the aforementioned mid/upper-level low, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn and move faster toward the northwest. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, lying on the western side of the guidance after placing heavier weight on the global models and corrected-consensus aids than on the regional hurricane guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 20.9N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 21.3N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 21.4N 51.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 21.9N 53.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 22.8N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 24.1N 55.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 25.8N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 29.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 31.0N 65.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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