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Tropical Storm Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-09-10 04:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 194 FONT12 KNHC 100233 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Rene Public Advisory Number 12
2020-09-10 04:33:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 190 WTNT33 KNHC 100233 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rene Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 ...RENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 34.0W ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rene was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 34.0 West. Rene is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a motion toward the west-northwest is expected for the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Rene is expected to be near hurricane strength by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Paulette (AT2/AL172020)
2020-09-10 04:33:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...PAULETTE MAINTAINING STRENGTH FOR NOW BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 9 the center of Paulette was located near 20.9, -48.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 13
2020-09-10 04:33:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 100233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020 ...PAULETTE MAINTAINING STRENGTH FOR NOW BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 48.1W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 48.1 West. Paulette is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest is expected through Friday. A northwestward motion should begin Friday night and continue into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Paulette could restrengthen early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and Bermuda into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Rene Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-09-10 04:33:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 100233 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 34.0W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 34.0W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 33.5W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.4N 35.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.9N 37.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.4N 39.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.5N 41.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.8N 43.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.5N 45.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 26.8N 46.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 28.3N 47.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 34.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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