je.st
news
Tag: subtropical
Subtropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-10-27 16:45:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 271444 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 Oscar's organization has improved this morning. Although the subtropical storm is still entangled with an upper-level low, convection has increased near the center of the cyclone since last night. The most recent Hebert-Poteat subtropical intensity estimate from TAFB has increased accordingly to 45-50 kt. Furthermore, Canadian drifting buoy 47546 recently reported a minimum pressure of just below 996 mb to the east of Oscar's center, suggesting the central pressure of the cyclone has decreased since the last advisory. The initial intensity is therefore increased to 50 kt for this advisory. Little change has been made to the intensity forecast. The GFS and many of its associated models (HWRF, DSHP, LGEM) have changed abruptly and forecast far less intensification than they did just 6 hours ago. However, the CTCI, HMON, and ECMWF-based statistical guidance still show Oscar reaching hurricane strength within a few days. Rather than chase a possible short-term trend in the intensity guidance, the official intensity forecast will stay the course for now and is a little above the intensity consensus, bringing Oscar to hurricane strength in around 48 h. After that time, some slight additional intensification is possible, but Oscar is ultimately expected to undergo extratropical transition by the end of the forecast period, which should cause the cyclone to steadily weaken. Oscar has turned toward the west and the initial motion estimate is now 270/11 kt. A west-southwestward motion is anticipated later today as Oscar moves around the back side of an mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic, followed by a turn toward the west on the south side of a subtropical ridge to the north. As long as Oscar intensifies as forecast, it should turn sharply northeastward early next week ahead of a mid-latitude trough advancing across the western and central Atlantic, and then accelerate in that direction while undergoing extratropical transition. The GFS is an outlier, showing a much weaker and vertically shallow cyclone that does not fully recurve, but all of the other global models are in generally good agreement with the scenario listed above. Despite the inconsistency of the GFS, the model consensus has not changed significantly since the last advisory, so only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 27.3N 48.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 26.9N 50.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 26.2N 53.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 29/0000Z 25.9N 56.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 26.5N 57.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 30.2N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 37.0N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 47.0N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
storm
oscar
Subtropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-10-27 16:45:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 271444 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 1500 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Subtropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-27 16:44:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR TURNS TOWARD THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Oct 27 the center of Oscar was located near 27.3, -48.4 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
oscar
subtropical
Subtropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 3
2018-10-27 16:44:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 271444 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 ...OSCAR TURNS TOWARD THE WEST AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 48.4W ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM ESE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 48.4 West. The storm is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest is anticipated later today, followed by a turn back toward the west on Sunday. Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north and then the northeast by early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Oscar could become a hurricane after transitioning to a tropical storm later this weekend or early next week. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
public
storm
oscar
Subtropical Storm Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-10-27 16:44:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 271443 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 1500 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 48.4W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 30SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 90SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 48.4W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 47.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.9N 50.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.2N 53.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.9N 56.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 26.5N 57.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.2N 57.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 37.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 47.0N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 48.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tags: number
storm
oscar
advisory
Sites : [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] next »