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Subtropical Storm Andrea Public Advisory Number 1
2019-05-21 00:28:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 630 PM AST Mon May 20 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 202228 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Andrea Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 630 PM AST Mon May 20 2019 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 630 PM AST...2230 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.8N 68.7W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 630 PM AST (2230 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Andrea was located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 68.7 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northeast is expected on Tuesday, followed by an eastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Andrea is expected to remain southwest or south of Bermuda during the next day or two. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible overnight. Weakening should begin late Tuesday, and Andrea is expected to dissipate on Wednesday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) northeast of the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters measured a minimum central pressure of 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Subtropical Storm Andrea Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-05-21 00:28:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2230 UTC MON MAY 20 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 202228 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 2230 UTC MON MAY 20 2019 AT 2230Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Subtropical Storm Andrea Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-05-21 00:28:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2230 UTC MON MAY 20 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 202227 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 2230 UTC MON MAY 20 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 68.7W AT 20/2230Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 68.7W AT 20/2230Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 68.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.2N 68.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 31.1N 68.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 31.5N 66.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 68.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Subtropical Storm Oscar Graphics
2018-10-27 22:37:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Oct 2018 20:37:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Oct 2018 21:22:12 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-10-27 22:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 272032 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018 Oscar is still located beneath an upper-level low, however it its convective structure is now more reminiscent of a tropical cyclone. Deep convection is primarily occuring in a small burst just south of the center of Oscar, however this convective activity appears to be displaced by light northerly shear associated with the upper-low. Earlier AMSU sounding data indicated that the cyclone has developed a weak but vertically deep warm core which also indicates that Oscar is nearly a tropical cyclone, if it isn't one already. Oscar is moving quickly westward away from the upper-low, and will likely become a tropical storm later tonight if its current structural trends continue. The initial intensity is held at 50 kt, based primarily on the latest Hebert-Poteat subtropical intensity estimate from TAFB. The intensity guidance has bounced back, and the most of the intensity guidance is higher than it was six hours ago. While little change was made to the NHC intensity forecast, it now lies very near the intensity consensus at all forecast hours. Gradual intensification is still expected and Oscar is forecast to approach hurricane strength by Monday. Slight additional intensification is possible through the middle of next week, until extratropical transition occurs by 120 h. Oscar moved very quickly westward this afternoon, but a more representative motion estimate is 265/15 kt. The latest runs of the typically reliable global models are in better agreement than they were this morning. Oscar is forecast to move west-southwestward or westward for the next day or two on the south side of a mid-level ridge to the north. The cyclone is then expected to recurve and accelerate northeastward ahead of a substantial mid-latitude trough moving across the western and central Atlantic by the middle of next week. The official track forecast has been adjusted westward to bring it closer to the latest track consensus, especially for the first 72 h of the forecast. By day 5, the official forecast is quite similar to the previous advisory, but with a slightly slower forward speed for Oscar. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 26.9N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 26.1N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 28/1800Z 25.7N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 25.6N 57.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 26.4N 59.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 30.6N 57.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 38.5N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 46.5N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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