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Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2018-09-29 10:32:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 751 FONT13 KNHC 290832 PWSAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)

2018-09-29 10:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR A FEW MORE DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 29 the center of Leslie was located near 35.2, -50.3 with movement SW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 12

2018-09-29 10:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 535 WTNT33 KNHC 290832 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 500 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 ...LESLIE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR A FEW MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 50.3W ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 50.3 West. The storm is moving toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A general southwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Leslie could transition into a tropical cyclone during the next few days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Leslie are affecting Bermuda and the northern Leeward Islands and will reach other portions of the Lesser Antilles, Greater Antilles, and Bahamas through Saturday. Swells are expected to reach portions of the east coast of the United States by Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 12

2018-09-29 10:32:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 536 WTNT23 KNHC 290832 TCMAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 50.3W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......220NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 720SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 50.3W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 50.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 34.4N 51.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 33.8N 52.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 33.5N 53.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.2N 54.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 32.3N 55.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 31.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 32.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 50.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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