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Subtropical Depression Andrea Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-05-21 16:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 211435 TCDAT1 Subtropical Depression Andrea Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 As expected, Andrea is likely to be a short-lived event. The cyclone's cloud pattern has continued to degrade, and Andrea is now essentially devoid of deep convection. In fact, at first glance, the upper-level low to the southwest of the center appears to be the most dominant feature. Based on the lack of convection and a buoy observation not far to the north of Andrea, the system is being downgraded to a subtropical depression. Since the cyclone is expected to remain under the influence of the upper low and in and environment of dry mid-level air for the next day or so, Andrea is likely to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in a day or less. The system has moved a little more to the north than previously estimated and the initial motion is 360/7. Upper-level westerlies should cause the cyclone to turn eastward in 12-24 hours until dissipation. The official track forecast is similar to but a little slower than the dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 30.8N 69.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 31.5N 67.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1200Z 31.7N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Depression Andrea Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2019-05-21 16:35:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 211435 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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andrea
Summary for Subtropical Depression Andrea (AT1/AL012019)
2019-05-21 16:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue May 21 the center of Andrea was located near 30.8, -69.2 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Subtropical Depression Andrea Public Advisory Number 4
2019-05-21 16:34:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 211434 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Andrea Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019 1100 AM AST Tue May 21 2019 ...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 69.2W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Andrea was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 69.2 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the northeast and east is expected tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Andrea is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by this evening. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Subtropical Depression Andrea Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-05-21 16:34:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 211434 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012019 1500 UTC TUE MAY 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.2W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.2W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 69.2W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.5N 67.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.7N 66.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 69.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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