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Subtropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-10-27 04:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 270233 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0300 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Subtropical Storm Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-10-27 04:32:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 270232 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0300 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 45.7W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 45.7W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 45.3W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 27.2N 47.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 26.6N 50.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 25.6N 53.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.3N 55.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.5N 57.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 30.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 34.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 45.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-09-29 16:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 14:48:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 15:22:03 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-09-29 16:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 245 WTNT43 KNHC 291446 TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018 Leslie's cloud pattern has taken on a more tropical appearance since last night. However, the cyclone is still co-located with an upper-level low, so its status as a subtropical cyclone is maintained for this advisory. The initial intensity remains 40 kt, based on a subtropical classification of 35-40 kt from TAFB. The global models forecast that Leslie will separate from the upper-level low over the course of the next day or so, which should complete its transition to a tropical cyclone. While this could result in a short-term increase in shear over Leslie, by early next week the cyclone will likely be located within a fairly low shear environment. However, Leslie is expected to move very slowly by that time, and ocean upwelling could limit or prevent further strengthening. There is a large amount of spread in the intensity guidance by day 5, but it is worth noting that the models most capable of properly representing the effect of ocean cooling on intensity, COAMPS-TC, HWRF, and HMON, all keep Leslie below hurricane strength for the next 5 days. The HWRF in particular forecasts nearly 5 deg C of ocean cooling beneath the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is generally a little lower than the previous advisory, but is still near the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids at all forecast hours. If Leslie moves more than expected, it would not be surprising if it strengthened more than currently forecast. Little change was made to the official track forecast. Leslie is still expected to move slowly southwestward for the next couple of days, before coming to a near halt early next week. By the middle of the week, an approaching mid-latitude trough could steer Leslie toward the north or northeast and allow the cyclone to start gaining speed, however, there is a lot of spread among the global models as to how quickly this will occur, and confidence in this portion of the forecast is fairly low. Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical low will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 34.4N 50.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 33.8N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 33.3N 52.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 33.1N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 01/1200Z 32.8N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 31.6N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 31.0N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 33.0N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-29 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 29 the center of Leslie was located near 34.4, -50.8 with movement SW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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