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Subtropical Storm Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2019-10-11 16:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 11 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 111451 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 1500 UTC FRI OCT 11 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONTAUK POINT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Summary for Subtropical Storm Melissa (AT4/AL142019)

2019-10-11 16:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CHANGE IN STORM STATUS DOES NOT CHANGE EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 11 the center of Melissa was located near 38.5, -69.6 with movement SSW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Subtropical Storm Melissa Public Advisory Number 1

2019-10-11 16:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 111450 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142019 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 11 2019 ...NOR'EASTER CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BECOMES A SUBTROPICAL STORM... ...CHANGE IN STORM STATUS DOES NOT CHANGE EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM WIND AND COASTAL FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.5N 69.6W ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. For information on wind and coastal flooding hazards, see products issued by your local National Weather Service office at weather.gov. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 69.6 West. Melissa is moving toward the south-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), but little net motion is expected today. A turn toward the east- northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast tonight and this motion will continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa will move away from the east coast of the United States. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Melissa is forecast to lose its subtropical characteristics by Saturday night. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) from the center, primarily over waters. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Wind gusts to 50 mph are likely to continue over portions of Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket through much of today. COASTAL FLOODING: Coastal flooding will continue today along portions of the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states to southeastern New England. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are affecting much of the U.S. east coast, portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Subtropical Storm Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 1

2019-10-11 16:50:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 11 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 111450 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142019 1500 UTC FRI OCT 11 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 69.6W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 110NW. 34 KT.......300NE 90SE 180SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..900NE 300SE 480SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 69.6W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 69.7W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 38.2N 69.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 60SE 210SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 38.4N 67.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 210SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 39.0N 65.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 39.9N 61.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 41.3N 52.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 69.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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