je.st
news
Tag: subtropical
Subtropical Storm Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-10-27 10:38:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 270838 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0900 UTC SAT OCT 27 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 47.0W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 60SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 47.0W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 46.5W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 27.1N 49.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 26.2N 52.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 25.7N 54.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.9N 56.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.4N 57.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 35.0N 52.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 45.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 47.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
storm
oscar
advisory
Subtropical Storm Oscar Graphics
2018-10-27 04:36:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Oct 2018 02:36:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Oct 2018 03:22:07 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
oscar
subtropical
Subtropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-10-27 04:33:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 26 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 270233 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 26 2018 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate the circulation of the broad low pressure area over the central Atlantic has become better defined, with a low-level center developing to the south of a convective burst. The scatterometer data indicate 35-40 kt winds about 70-90 n mi from the center, and satellite imagery shows that the cyclone is entangled with a developing upper-level low. Based on these factors, advisories are being initiated on the latest in this year's series of subtropical storms, Oscar. Due to the recent development of the center, the initial motion is an uncertain 335/8. The track guidance is in excellent agreement that Oscar should should turn sharply westward and west- southwestward during the next 24 h as it pivots around the north side of the upper-level low, with this general motion continuing through about 48 h. After that, the cyclone should turn more westward at a slower forward speed as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge. A northeastward motion appears likely from 72-120 h due to a mid-latitude trough approaching Oscar from the west. However, there are significant differences in the forward speed between the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models that make this part of the forecast low confidence. Overall, the forecast track is close to the TVCN consensus model, and it splits the difference between the divergent global models late in the forecast period. Gradual strengthening is forecast as Oscar remains in the deep-layer cyclonic flow of the upper-level low during the first 36-48 h. After that time, the global models suggests the system will have a chance to develop a tropical cyclone outflow pattern, and based on this the forecast calls for Oscar to become a tropical cyclone near the 48 h point. Interaction with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough may allow some additional intensification before Oscar encounters stronger shear near the 120 h point. The FV3 model shows a much weaker Oscar than the other dynamical models, and it is possible that dry air entrainment may hamper development through the forecast period. Thus, the intensity forecast is below the intensity consensus and on the weaker side of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 26.7N 45.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 27.2N 47.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 26.6N 50.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 25.6N 53.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 25.3N 55.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H 30/0000Z 26.5N 57.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 30.0N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 34.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
oscar
Summary for Subtropical Storm Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-27 04:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 26 the center of Oscar was located near 26.7, -45.7 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
oscar
subtropical
Subtropical Storm Oscar Public Advisory Number 1
2018-10-27 04:33:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 26 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 270233 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Oscar Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 26 2018 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 45.7W ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Oscar was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 45.7 West. The storm is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the west and west-southwest at a faster forward speed is expected on Saturday, with this motion continuing through Sunday night. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Oscar could become a tropical storm on Sunday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
public
storm
oscar
Sites : [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] next »