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Subtropical Storm Joyce Public Advisory Number 5
2018-09-13 22:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 115 WTNT35 KNHC 132051 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Joyce Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 ...JOYCE LOSING ORGANIZATION... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.6N 44.2W ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Joyce was located near latitude 33.6 North, longitude 44.2 West. The storm is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the south-southwest and then toward the south is expected later today through early Friday. A gradual turn toward the east-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening of the system is expected through Sunday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-09-13 22:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 114 WTNT25 KNHC 132051 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 44.2W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 120SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 44.2W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 44.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 33.1N 44.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.3N 44.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 32.4N 44.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 33.2N 43.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 36.0N 39.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 44.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Graphics
2018-09-13 16:38:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 14:38:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 14:39:00 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-09-13 16:37:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 594 WTNT45 KNHC 131437 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 Joyce's satellite presentation is less than impressive this morning, with the low-level center exposed to the northwest of a small patch of deep convection. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on the latest subtropical classification of ST2.5 from TAFB a 1208Z ASCAT-B overpass that showed 30-35 kt winds north and northeast of the center. Cyclone phase space diagrams still show Joyce with a shallow-to-moderate warm core, and the system remains a subtropical storm for now. Little change in intensity is expected during the next few days, as Joyce will continue to be affected by strong westerly-to- southwesterly vertical wind shear. The new NHC forecast is a little below the intensity consensus given the weakening trend seen in the global models. Dissipation is shown at 96 hours, but it wouldn't be surprising if Joyce becomes a post-tropical cyclone before that. The initial motion estimate is 245/05. Joyce is currently situated a little to the west of an upper-level low, which is currently steering the system southwestward and southward, and that should continue for the next day or so. Then, Joyce should begin to accelerate northeastward ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. The new NHC track forecast follows the trend of the latest guidance, and is a little to the west of the previous one through 36 hours. The official forecast is close to the latest HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 33.7N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 33.1N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 32.2N 44.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 31.9N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 32.5N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 35.5N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-09-13 16:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 471 FONT15 KNHC 131437 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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