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Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-09-23 16:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 132 WTNT23 KNHC 231431 TCMAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 46.5W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 180SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 46.5W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 46.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 33.2N 47.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 33.0N 47.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 33.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 140SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 170SE 20SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 46.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Graphics
2018-09-13 22:53:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 20:53:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Sep 2018 21:40:33 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-09-13 22:52:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 206 WTNT45 KNHC 132052 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018 Joyce has an exposed center this afternoon with no substantial deep convection anywhere nearby. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, consistent with the Hebert-Poteat ST2.5 classification from TAFB as well as the appearance of the very tight low-level center as seen in the GOES-16 visible satellite imagery. As Joyce still remains embedded within an upper-level trough, the system retains the subtropical storm label. Joyce has now been devoid of deep convection for almost a day, due to the dry stable air combined with strong tropospheric vertical shear. As the system is not expected to undergo extratropical transition, without deep convection gradual weakening is anticipated until dissipation in about four days. The official intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN intensity consensus scheme along with the GFS and ECMWF global model guidance. This new forecast indicates a reduction from the previous advisory, and in fact, Joyce could become a post-tropical cyclone soon if deep convection does not reappear shortly. Joyce is moving toward the southwest at about 5 kt, as it is situated slightly to the west of an upper-level low. In a couple days, a new short wave trough will dive equatorward west of Joyce and begin advecting Joyce toward the northeast. The new NHC track forecast is a bit to the left (southwest) of the previous advisory and is based upon a blend of the HWRF hurricane model and the GFS and ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 33.6N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 33.1N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 32.3N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 32.4N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 33.2N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 36.0N 39.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Subtropical Storm Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-09-13 22:51:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 436 FONT15 KNHC 132051 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 2100 UTC THU SEP 13 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
Summary for Subtropical Storm Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-13 22:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE LOSING ORGANIZATION... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 13 the center of Joyce was located near 33.6, -44.2 with movement SW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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