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Subtropical Storm Leslie Graphics
2018-09-23 16:35:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 14:35:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 23 Sep 2018 15:33:59 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-09-23 16:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 328 FONT13 KNHC 231432 PWSAT3 SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 23 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-23 16:32:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 251 WTNT43 KNHC 231432 TCDAT3 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 The development of a subtropical storm that NHC and the global models have been advertising for the past several days has materialized, and based on satellite intensity classification from TAFB and earlier ASCAT data, advisories on Subtropical Storm Leslie have been initiated. Leslie is still embedded within an upper-level low and strong winds are removed from the center. However, there is a chance as usual that the subtropical cyclone could develop additional convection near the center, and the transition to a tropical system during the next day or so is not out of the question. Global models do indicate that a new low is going to form north of Leslie, and that the subtropical cyclone will become absorbed by the new larger low. This is the scenario depicted by NHC at this time. Leslie is embedded within very light steering currents, and most likely the cyclone will be meandering today and tomorrow. After that time, with the development of the new low to the north, Leslie will likely move east until it becomes absorbed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 33.0N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 33.2N 47.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 33.0N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 33.0N 46.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 33.0N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 26/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018)
2018-09-23 16:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BE A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 23 the center of Leslie was located near 33.0, -46.5 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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leslie
subtropical
Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 1
2018-09-23 16:32:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 133 WTNT33 KNHC 231431 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BE A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.0N 46.5W ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 46.5 West. The storm is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). Little overall motion is anticipated during the next 2 days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, but Leslie is forecast to become absorbed by a larger non-tropical low by the middle of the week. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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