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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-09-03 07:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 030535 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located just north of western Grand Bahama Island. Recent satellite-derived surface winds indicate that the low pressure area located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is becoming better defined. Associated thunderstorm activity has been increasing and showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure system located over the west-central Gulf of Mexico about 200 miles east-northeast of Tampico, Mexico, is showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so while the low moves slowly westward or west-southwestward toward Mexico. Interests along the northeastern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible during the next couple of days. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-09-03 02:13:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 030012 CCA TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 Corrected formation chance for the Bermuda system from medium to low For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located near Grand Bahama Island. An elongated area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although this system is currently producing limited showers and thunderstorms, a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. An extensive area of showers and thunderstorms continues in association with an area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the low moves slowly westward or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico. Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A trough of low pressure, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible during the next couple of days. Afterward, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Roberts

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-09-02 19:53:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

484 ABNT20 KNHC 021753 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located near Grand Bahama Island. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that an elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better defined since yesterday. Although this system is currently producing limited showers and thunderstorms, a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico have become more concentrated since last night. Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the surface circulation associated with the low has also become better defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next two or three days while the low moves slowly westward or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico. Interests along the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. This system is producing persistent shower and thunderstorm activity but does not have a well-defined surface center. Some gradual development of the disturbance is possible during the next few days and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly northward. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-09-02 13:38:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 021137 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located over Grand Bahama Island. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located about 300 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico is producing a wide area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the low moves slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Although the associated showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, the system does not have a well-defined surface center. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands in a few days. Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible late this week or over the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-09-02 07:53:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 020552 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Dorian, located over eastern Grand Bahama Island. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low pressure system located about 150 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has become better defined. Shower and thunderstorm activity is beginning to show signs of organization, and environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands through Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the low moves slowly westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday and has also become better organized this morning. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly northward or north-northwestward. Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands by the end of the week. Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible over the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

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