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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-12 01:29:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 112328 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles are associated with a sharp trough of low pressure. Although limited development of this system is anticipated tonight and Thursday, conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest across the Florida Straits and southeastern Florida, and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will likely produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This weak disturbance is accompanied by limited shower activity that has been gradually diminishing today. This system is forecast to move westward toward unfavorable upper-level winds, and tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some development is possible over the weekend or early next week while the system moves over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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atlantic
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-11 19:16:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 111716 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A large area of showers and thunderstorms was located along a sharp surface trough from near eastern Cuba through the southeastern Bahamas into the southwestern Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development late this week, and a tropical depression could form near the northwestern Bahamas or South Florida as early as Friday. Further development is possible over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this weekend. The disturbance will likely produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Friday, and across Florida during the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, was located about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This disturbance is accompanied by a few thunderstorms showing little organization. The system is forecast to move westward where upper-level winds will become even less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave located in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions may become more favorable for development as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles from late this weekend into early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Burke/Blake
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-11 13:56:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 111155 CCA TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 Delete word and correct number For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles are associated with a surface trough of low pressure. Limited development of this system is anticipated today or tomorrow, however conditions are forecast to become a little more favorable for development over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form as the disturbance moves slowly toward the west-northwest across the Florida Straits or South Florida and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this disturbance could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida during the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This disturbance is accompanied by a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move westward toward unfavorable upper-level winds for tropical cyclone formation. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some slow development is possible over the weekend or early next week when the system is moving over the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-11 07:02:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 110502 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, and extending northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports continue to indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some of the heavier squalls. Limited development of this disturbance is expected during the next few days due to only marginally conducive upper-level winds while the system moves very slowly west-northwestward across the Bahamas. However, environmental conditions could become more favorable for development when the system moves over the Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida by late Friday and continuing into the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although this disturbance continues to produce disorganized shower activity, some slight development of this system is still possible on Wednesday. By Thursday, however, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This disturbance is expected to move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is forecast to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some slow development is possible over the weekend or early next week when the system is expected to be a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-09-11 01:13:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 102312 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas, and extending northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some of the heavier squalls. Limited development of this disturbance is expected during the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward across the Bahamas due to only marginally conducive upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could become more favorable for development when the system moves over the Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday and continuing into the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A broad low pressure system, associated with a tropical wave, is located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although this disturbance continues to produce disorganized shower activity, some slight development of this system is still possible tonight and Wednesday. By Thursday, however, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This disturbance is expected to move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is expected to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some slow development is possible over the weekend when the system is a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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