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Hurricane MATTHEW Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2016-10-07 17:45:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Fri, 07 Oct 2016 15:45:08 GMT
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Hurricane MATTHEW Graphics
2016-10-07 17:09:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Oct 2016 14:56:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Oct 2016 15:05:36 GMT
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Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion Number 38
2016-10-07 16:59:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 071459 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016 The satellite presentation has degraded during the past several hours, and the eye is not very distinct. However, the SFMR and flight-level wind data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the initial intensity is still 105 kt. Matthew is expected to change little in intensity during the next 6 to 12 hours, but it should begin to weaken at a faster pace in 24 hours while the shear increases, and by the end of the forecast period, Matthew is expected to become a tropical depression. Fixes from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Matthew is moving toward the north-northwest or 345 degrees at 10 kt. Matthew is reaching the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and encounter the mid-latitude westerlies. This flow pattern should steer the hurricane northward and then northeastward during the next 36 hours. After that time, the flow pattern is forecast to change again and a weakening Matthew should then turn southward and southwestward. The NHC forecast is a little bit to the north from the previous one during the first 24 to 36 hour period following the multi-model consensus. After 72 hours, models continue to vary the flow pattern and the confidence in the track forecast is low. KEY MESSAGES: 1. We have been very fortunate that Matthew's category 3 winds have remained a short distance offshore of the Florida Coast thus far, but this should not be a reason to let down our guard. Only a small deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring these winds onshore. The western eyewall of Matthew, which contains hurricane-force winds, is expected to move over or very near the coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia today. 2. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and occupants of high-rise buildings in the Jacksonville area are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. 3. The water hazards remain, even if the core of Matthew remains offshore. These include the danger of life-threatening inundation from storm surge, as well as inland flooding from heavy rains from Florida to North Carolina. 4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 29.4N 80.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 30.8N 80.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 32.5N 79.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 33.5N 78.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 33.5N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 32.0N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 28.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 27.0N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2016-10-07 16:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 071456 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DANVILLE VA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 7(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) RALEIGH NC 34 1 6( 7) 10(17) 2(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) 5(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 18(39) 8(47) X(47) X(47) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 20(22) 24(46) 4(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 9(10) 33(43) 14(57) 4(61) X(61) X(61) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 8( 8) 34(42) 18(60) 5(65) X(65) X(65) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 10(10) 10(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 10(11) 34(45) 18(63) 4(67) X(67) X(67) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 11(11) 10(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 2 23(25) 38(63) 9(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75) SURF CITY NC 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 9(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 3 32(35) 35(70) 7(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 2( 2) 25(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) BALD HEAD ISL 34 4 44(48) 31(79) 4(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 5( 5) 38(43) 5(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X 1( 1) 18(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) FLORENCE SC 34 5 55(60) 14(74) 1(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) FLORENCE SC 50 X 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBIA SC 34 5 43(48) 6(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) COLUMBIA SC 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 5 58(63) 21(84) 2(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 11(11) 34(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) LITTLE RIVER 64 X 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MYRTLE BEACH 34 7 65(72) 16(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 18(18) 34(52) 1(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 4( 4) 19(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GEORGETOWN SC 34 21 64(85) 7(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) GEORGETOWN SC 50 1 37(38) 23(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X 13(13) 21(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CHARLESTON SC 34 58 36(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) CHARLESTON SC 50 3 63(66) 8(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 38(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 78 20(98) X(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 8 64(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 2 42(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ATLANTA GA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 8 29(37) 4(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) AUGUSTA GA 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 86 12(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SAVANNAH GA 50 19 47(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) SAVANNAH GA 64 4 30(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) KINGS BAY GA 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGS BAY GA 50 71 4(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) KINGS BAY GA 64 33 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) WAYCROSS GA 34 66 5(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) WAYCROSS GA 50 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYPORT NS FL 50 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) MAYPORT NS FL 64 46 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) JACKSONVILLE 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) JACKSONVILLE 50 56 1(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) JACKSONVILLE 64 18 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GAINESVILLE FL 34 33 2(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GAINESVILLE FL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 64 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) THE VILLAGES 34 22 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 1(26) ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) W PALM BEACH 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MIAMI FL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) NAPLES FL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) TAMPA FL 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 38
2016-10-07 16:56:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 071455 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016 ...WESTERN EYEWALL OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW BRUSHING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 80.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been extended northeastward to Surf City North Carolina. The Hurricane Warning from Sebastian Inlet to Cocoa Beach Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning south of Sebastian Inlet has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning and Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been discontinued. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Surf City to Cape Lookout North Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cocoa Beach to Surf City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet to Cocoa Beach * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 80.5 West. Matthew is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of northeast Florida and Georgia through tonight, and near or over the coast of South Carolina on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane until it begins to move away from the United States on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A wind gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported at St. Augustine. The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane was 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area in Florida today, and spread northward within the warning area through Saturday. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the tropical storm warning area in North Carolina on Saturday morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flagler Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft Cocoa Beach to Flagler Beach, Florida...4 to 6 ft Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina... 4 to 6 ft Sebastian Inlet to Cocoa Beach, Florida...2 to 4 ft Cape Fear to Salvo, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from Sebastian Inlet, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Salvo, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from central Florida to eastern North Carolina...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in flooding and flash flooding. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible along the South Carolina, Georgia, and northeast Florida coasts today. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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