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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 35
2020-09-21 04:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 532 WTNT25 KNHC 210250 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LOWER EAST PUBNICO TO CANSO NOVA SCOTIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 63.6W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..510NE 360SE 360SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 63.6W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 63.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 30.9N 63.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 160SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...280NE 200SE 200SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.5N 63.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 50 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 160NW. 34 KT...390NE 310SE 300SW 310NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.3N 64.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 280SE 280SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 210SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 48.6N 59.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 57.4N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 63.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-21 02:15:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 00:15:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 21:25:44 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-21 01:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING TEDDY... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 8:00 PM AST Sun Sep 20 the center of Teddy was located near 29.3, -63.4 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 34A
2020-09-21 01:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 202352 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 34A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 800 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING TEDDY... ...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS FORECAST ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 63.4W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lower East Pubnico to Canso Nova Scotia A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 63.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for another couple days. Teddy is approaching Bermuda from the southeast, and the center should pass east of the island Monday morning. Teddy is forecast to be approaching Nova Scotia late Tuesday or Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, and the system is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Tuesday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda later tonight and could continue into Monday night. Tropical storm conditions could begin over Nova Scotia on Tuesday afternoon. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: From Tuesday through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 34
2020-09-20 22:56:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 542 WTNT45 KNHC 202056 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 Satellite images show that Teddy is continuing to maintain a central core, albeit eroded on the western side due to shear and dry air. However, the latest microwave data show a more distinct eye than conventional data would indicate, along with an open eyewall. The initial intensity is held at 90 kt, pending Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data this evening. The hurricane has turned north-northwestward and is likely to turn northward tonight and north-northeastward tomorrow due to an approaching large mid-latitude trough. By early Tuesday, the cyclone should turn back to the north-northwest as it rotates around the same trough, then turn northeastward early Wednesday ahead of yet another trough moving into from eastern Canada. Track model guidance remains in very good agreement, and only a slight westward adjustment was made to the forecast. The global models are in excellent agreement on Teddy transitioning into a large non-tropical low between Bermuda and Nova Scotia in about 2 days. In many respects, the upcoming trough interaction reminds me of an extratropical transition like Sandy 2012, thankfully happening at a good distance from land, with the GFS/ECMWF models showing pressures into the 940s tomorrow, a slight increase in maximum winds, and a large increase in the size of the tropical-storm-force winds. Beyond Tuesday, the hurricane should become post-tropical near or south of Nova Scotia and be absorbed by a larger extratropical low after day 4 to the northeast of Newfoundland. Little change was made to the official forecast, other than show a small increase tomorrow as the peak extratropical forcing deepens the cyclone. It is still worth noting every model has a rather large and strong post-tropical cyclone near Nova Scotia in 2-3 days, with hazards that will extend a very long way from the center. Extremely dangerous surf conditions with 20-ft waves have been reported on the south shore of Bermuda, and officials are encouraging residents to avoid going into or near the water. Key Messages: 1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning this evening and could continue into Monday evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late Tuesday through Thursday, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of Nova Scotia, and heavy rain is also expected across sections of Atlantic Canada. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 29.0N 63.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 30.1N 63.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 32.8N 62.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 36.9N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 40.0N 64.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 42.7N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 23/1800Z 46.0N 61.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/1800Z 54.5N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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