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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Advisory Number 2
2016-09-12 22:40:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 12 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 122040 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 2100 UTC MON SEP 12 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 50.7W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 50.7W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 50.5W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.3N 51.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.2N 52.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.7N 54.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 35.7N 52.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 80SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 45.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 54.5N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 50.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm IAN Graphics
2016-09-12 16:43:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Sep 2016 14:43:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Sep 2016 14:42:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-09-12 16:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 12 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 121443 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 AM AST MON SEP 12 2016 Visible satellite images and a recent ASCAT overpass show that the low pressure system over the central Atlantic has now acquired a well-defined low-level circulation. The scatterometer data showed tropical-storm-force winds over the northern semicircle of the circulation, and the advisory intensity is set to 35 kt. Ian is not a well organized storm, with the low-level center exposed and displaced about 70 n mi to the southwest of the main area of deep convection. This is due to the effect of about 20 kt of vertical shear over the system, and this strong shear is predicted to persist for at least the next day or so. In 36 to 48 hours, the shear is forecast to relax somewhat, so some slow intensification could begin by tomorrow night. The official intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus. In 120 hours, or sooner, the system should become embedded within a frontal zone over north Atlantic and lose tropical characteristics. Ian is moving northwestward, with initial motion estimated to be about 320/11 kt. The storm is currently moving through a break in the subtropical ridge. In the next few days, a 500 mb trough approaching from the west should cause Ian to turn northward and then north-northeastward while accelerating. The official forecast track leans toward the ECMWF solution, but is also not far from the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 21.8N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 23.4N 51.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 25.4N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 27.3N 53.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 29.7N 54.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 34.5N 53.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 42.5N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 53.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm IAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-09-12 16:42:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 12 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 121442 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1500 UTC MON SEP 12 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm IAN (AT5/AL102016)
2016-09-12 16:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 12 the center of IAN was located near 21.8, -50.4 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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