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Summary for Tropical Storm IAN (AT5/AL102016)

2016-09-13 10:42:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...IAN CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 13 the center of IAN was located near 24.0, -51.7 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm IAN Public Advisory Number 4

2016-09-13 10:42:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 130842 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IAN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 ...IAN CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.0N 51.7W ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 51.7 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Advisory Number 4

2016-09-13 10:42:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 130842 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 0900 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 51.7W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 140SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 51.7W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 51.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.4N 52.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 27.8N 53.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.4N 53.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.2N 53.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.7N 46.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 50.7N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 58.5N 18.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 51.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm IAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2016-09-13 10:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 130842 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 0900 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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