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Tropical Storm IAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-09-13 16:43:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 131443 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1500 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Advisory Number 5
2016-09-13 16:43:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 131443 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1500 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 52.3W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 140SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 52.3W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 52.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.3N 53.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.9N 53.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 32.6N 53.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.5N 52.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 44.0N 42.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 54.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 62.0N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 52.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Ian Macleod Distillers acquires Spencerfield Spirit Co
2016-09-13 13:57:00| Daily beverage news and comment - from just-drinks.com
Ian Macleod Distillers has bought Spencerfield Spirit Co, creators of the Edinburgh Gin brand.
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Tropical Storm IAN Graphics
2016-09-13 11:10:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Sep 2016 08:43:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Sep 2016 09:06:36 GMT
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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-09-13 10:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130842 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 Ian is a strongly sheared tropical storm. The low-level center of the cyclone is completely exposed with the main area of deep convection located about 120 n mi northeast of the center. This asymmetric cloud pattern is the result of about 30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory, in agreement with the earlier ASCAT data. This estimate is a little higher than the latest Dvorak classifications. Satellite fixes indicate that Ian has slowed down during the last several hours. The initial motion estimate, using a 12-h average, is 335/8 kt. The tropical cyclone is situated between a mid- to upper-level low to its west and a mid-level high to its east. This pattern is expected to persist for the next couple of days, and should cause Ian to move north-northwestward to northward with a slight increase in forward speed. After that time, a shortwave trough is expected to approach the tropical storm, and it will likely cause Ian to turn northeastward and accelerate as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude flow. The models are in fair agreement in this overall scenario, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. This prediction is in best agreement with the various consensus aids. The strong shear currently affecting Ian is expected to persist for another 24 hours, so little change in strength is predicted during that time. The shear is forecast to lessen some in a couple of days while Ian is still over warm water. These environmental conditions, combined with some baroclinic forcing, could allow for slight strengthening in the 36- to 72-h time period. After that time, Ian is expected to move back into a strong shear environment and over progressively colder water, which should lead to extratropical transition in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely the same as the previous one, and is in best agreement with the SHIPS guidance during its tropical phase and the global models during the extratropical portion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 24.0N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 25.4N 52.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 27.8N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 30.4N 53.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 33.2N 53.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 40.7N 46.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 50.7N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 18/0600Z 58.5N 18.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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